NAB Morning Call

Thursday 7th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities are up at the close. Helped by an announcement that Apple will invest heavily domestic production. It seems investors have forgotten weaker ISM and jobs data over the last week. India has been hit with another 25bp in tariffs for purchasing oil from India, although President Trump is now hoping to resolve the Ukraine crisis, possibly meeting with Putin next week. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through these events, plus stronger thane expected Europpean data, and looks ahead to the Bank of England meeting, where a cut is expected. The question is, how much by? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 6th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S-word has been used a bit overnight as the US ISM Services number showed falls in employment, new orders and rising prices. But, as NAB’s Skye Masters points out, the counter to that is the PMI number for the same month, which rose substantially. So, pick your number, or wait for the dust to settle. Meanwhile President Trump threatened more tariffs during a CNBC interview overnight. He’s already warned India that they face substantial extra tariffs over their purchases of Russian oil, now he is warning of tariffs on microchips and pharmaceuticals  (ultimately rising to 250%!), kicking off within the next week.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 5th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHas Friday’s jobs data been forgotten about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, pointing out that there’s very little movement in bond yields. But there’s been no retracement either and auctions this week will test the mettle of investors as to whether any long-term damage has been done by the BLS sacking and Trump’s moves on the Fed board. There’s been a further move down in oil, as India is threatened with increased tariffs for continuing to buy Russian oil. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 4th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were sharp market moves on Friday after all the shenanigans in the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill tells us how markets responded to a far weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report, that included two substantial reductions in the numbers for the prior two months. Market repriced expectations for a cut next month. That would seem to give the President what he wanted, but nonetheless he sacked the head of the statistical agency collecting the data. Markets responded to that news. Then one of the Fed board, Adriana Kugler, resigned, effective the end of this week, giving the President the chance to put his own man or woman onto the board. Quite a day! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NZ Super Fund is New Zealand’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF), that has earned a reputation for delivering the strongest returns of any SWF globally. So what’s their secret and how do they perform against private funds?Brad Dunstan, their Chief Investment Officer, says the advantage of time on their side. They don’t have to meet demands for payouts, so they have the luxury of a longer-term view. He also says their Total Portfolio Approach is part of their success and explains to Phil how that works.But does success in the past guarantee success in the future? How is Brad and the team at NZ Super Fund navigating the uncertainties of Trump’s America, the promises of new technologies and the role of Europe in the world order? And how important is New Zealand itself to their investment mix? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more inform

Friday 1st August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYesterday the US President warned there will be no delays on tariffs ahead of the August 1 deadline. Hours later he announced a 90-day delay for Mexico but warned that Canada’s support for Palestine would make a deal difficult. NABs Ken Crompton talks about how non—trade criteria are creeping into the US tariff regime, and it remains uncertain who will get hit with what today. The other big news today is non-farm payrolls tonight, and in earnings Amazon beat revenue forecasts put posted a weaker outlook for Q3, whilst Apple gave a healthier set of figures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday31st July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIf anything, the Fed was sounding slightly hawkish at today’s meeting, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, erven though two dissenters voted for a rate cut. The fear and uncertainty around the inflationary impacts of tariffs is part of the problem, and markets are now seeing a September cut as more or less each way bet. A cut in the range of copper products that will be tariffed from tomorrow drove a sharp fall in copper prices today, but a reminder from the President that tomorrow is deadline today and there will be no extensions (except for those already agreed of course). Meanwhile, strong earnings from Meta and Microsoft after the US close. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 30th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil is the big mover overnight as President Trump confirms Russia has just 10 days to end the war before he imposes secondary tariffs. US equities have fallen. Meanwhile, it seems likely that China will have longer to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence is rising, although, as NAB’s Sally Auld points out, the Conference Board report also highlighted growing concerns about the labour market. And the Treasury has said their Q3 borrowing requirement is an eye watering $1 trillion. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe euphoria over a US—EU trade deal didn’t last long. It has helped catapult the US dollar higher, but at the expense of a big fall in the Euro, with European equities also well down. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the about turn, with the realisation that 15% tariffs will slow the European economy. As a result, copper and iron ore prices are well down. Oil, though, is much higher with the prospect of secondary tariffs on Russian oil looming, after President Trump gave Putin 10-to 12 days to sort out a peace deal for Ukraine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 28th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump announced a trade deal with the EU on Sunday, that sees a 15% tariff on most goods, cars included. Aluminium and steel remain at 50%. In exchange, according to Bloomberg, Europe will not levy any tariffs and will invest an extra $600bn in the US and spend $750bn on US energy. The deadline for a China deal also seems to have been pushed back 90 days. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks through the likely market reaction today, with equities already elevated on Friday from earnings results and some significant earnings results in the week ahead. Also on Friday the US President indicated that it would be too problematic to fire Jerome Powell, but will he still hold that opinion when the Fed holds rates again this week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Rod Sims, chair of the think tank The Super Power Institute, joins Phil to talk about Australia’s green iron opportunity. He says we have all the ingredients – the raw materials and the environment – to produce green iron, rather than shipping iron ore and coking coal overseas for carbon-intensive processing. But he admits in the short-term Australian produced green iron will be a more expensive proposition for markets like China and, in the absence of global carbon pricing, the government will need to step in with subsidies. The long-term opportunity, though, will make it all worthwhile. The Institute's own figures suggest green iron could generate $386 billion annually in exports by 2060, compared to around $120 billion now for iron ore. That requires a strategy and deep pockets from the government. Phil asks, are they on board with this? Ho

Friday 25th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump is stepping up the pressure on Jerome Powell as he ‘drops by’ the Fed, before heading off to the UK for the weekend. Markets have been a little more concerned about PMIs and central banks, though. The ECB kept rates on hold but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill point out, Christine Lagarde was hawkish in the press conference. Phil asks if he could have seen the last rate cut in this cycle. Meanwhile Michelle Bullock reiterated the cautious approach of the RBA at a lunch in Sydney yesterday. As far as PMIs are concerned, the US did better than Europe, with the UK the clear loser. Today UK retail sales will be of interest, along with durable goods orders in the US. Plus, of course, earnings and tariff news.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJapan has a deal, even if the details right now seem a little sketchy. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through an arrangement that sees Japan’s exports taxed at 15%, a welcome reduction for the country’s automakers. There are murmurs that the EU will reach a similar deal. Ironically the speed at which the deal was reached in Japan could see pressure mounting on PM Shigeru Ishiba to step down sooner rather than later. Also today why Alphabet shares are well down in after hours trade whilst Tesla has risen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTech earnings will be a focus of the week, with Tesla, IBM and Alphabet a day away now. But markets have responded favourably to earnings results so far, including a strong result from Coca Cola. But, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out in today’s podcast, it was a different story for GM, who took a hit on their income to absorb the cost of tariffs on imported cars and parts. Meanwhile a new trade deal with the Philippines provided further evidence that any country wil be lucky to get away with the original Liberation Day 10 percent baseline. Tapas also picks the bones on the latest RBA minutes, which highlighted how the central bank is treading cautiously because it is uncertain of the terminal rate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities rose to new highs in this session, buoyed by positive earnings results, but pulled back, perhaps on the reality check that Liberation Day Mark 2 is a little over a week away, The European Commission has said they will be meeting early next week to discuss counter measures if a deal isn’t reached with the US. Scott Bessent has also suggested secondary tariffs will be more seriously applied to a deal with China. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the latest trade developments, plus the follow-through from Japan’s election result, yesterday’s New Zealand CPI and what central bankers might be saying today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt looks like Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has lost his majority, according to exit polls on Sunday. NAB’s Skye Masters says it was already priced into markets, with 30-year bond yields reaching record highs last week, but it comes at a bad time as Japan tries to negotiate a trade deal with the US, with the 1st August deadline looming. A deal might be reached with the EU this week or next, but President Trump has indicated he is inclined to a base tariff of 15 – 20%, even with a deal. A low level of data means the focus this week will be on tariff news, and corporate earnings, including Tesla and Alphabet in the middle of the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Who is going to ultimately benefit from Donald Trump’s policies – the tariffs and the bIg Beautiful Bill. Phil Dobbie talks to economist Phil Suttle, in Washington DC, about the future for the US economy and the impact on tariffs om the global economy. The uncertainty will almost certainly slow down US investment, the exception being the tech sector where the FOMO effect will keep companies developing. Phil reckons there will be a haves and have nots divide, in households and in the corporate space. But what about the rest of the world? How will China and Europe adapt? And can we expect a permanent shift in global trade patterns, or will we revert to norm once President Trump has moved on? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P hit a new high today, passing 65,300for the first time. Why? Well, the economic data out over night was largely good news. Retail sales were stronger than expected in June, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index perked up, initial jobless claims fell. As Phil suggests to NAB’s Gavin Friend, there was a lot to like. The threat of looming tariffs seems to be largely ignored, as though investors don’t think they will happen. It was a less rosy picture in Australia and the UK -in both cases unemployment rose more than expected. Gavin talks through whether these numbers will have any impact on central bank decisions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday17th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump made a TV career from firing people and there has been increasing speculation lately that he is ready to dump the Fed chair. That speculation was heightened on Wednesday when lawmakers claimed he had pointed to a letter asking Jerome Powell to leave. But he denied that when quizzed by the press, saying he’ll only go if he had to because of fraud. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent describes, markets swung back and forth on the unfolding story but finished with the stock market regaining ground at the close. Also on the podcast, rising inflation in the UK and Australian employment data today alongside some key US metrics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 16th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump suggested that the latest US inflation numbers are weak and that the Fed should cut by3 points - presumably 300bp. But, as NAB’s ken Crompton outlines, the data is more likely to delay the Fed. Why? Because markets responded positively to the data initially, on further examination it’s clear that inflation is picking up in areas most impacted by tariffs. A cut at the end of the month from the Fed now looks less likely. Ken also talks to Phil about China’s mixed activity data, the optimism of analysts in Europe’s ZEW survey, yesterday’s Aussie consumer confidence number and what we can glean from US corporate earnings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.