NAB Morning Call

Friday 20th June 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Research by CEDA (the Committee for Economic Development of Australia) shows that in the last fifty years or so the construction industry has not made the productivity gains experienced in manufacturing. In fact, the dwellings made by each construction worker has fallen by about 50 percent since the 1970s. James Brook, an economist at CEDA, worked on a recent report ‘Size Matters: Why Construction Productivity is So Weak’. The report highlights that, as well as the difficulty in sourcing materials, and the rising bureaucracy around planning regulations, the predominance of very small businesses in the construction sector is a barrier to the adoption of more productive techniques. James takes Phil through their findings in this weekend’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices are still elevated over the question on whether the US will side with Israel in the war with Iran and the possible repercussions of such a move. But the US President has left the door open for negotiations, now saying he’ll decide on US involvement in the next two weeks. Meanwhile, the Bank of England kept rates on hold, whilst the Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank both cut rates. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this was the first cut in this cycle for the Norges Bank. He also discusses with Phil Australia’s employment data from yesterday and looks ahead to UK retail sales and Japan’s national CPI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed agree unanimously to keep rates on hold, but the expectation of two cuts this year was enough for shares to rise a little today before finishing flat, no doubt driven down by geopolitical uncertainty and more weak data. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the one central bank that did surprise was the Riksbank. A cut was priced in, and was delivered, but the market was surprised at the prosect of another cut.Tapas also talks about the perceived challenges to the US dollar as the global reserve, with the PBoC Head talking about a new world currency order, where no one currency dominates. The main number today is the Australian employment read, and three central banks meet, including the Bank of England. Everyone today though will be keeping one eye focused on the news - will the US be drawn into the Iraq-Iran war?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are squeamish today as fears mount that the US will become more involved in the war between Israel and Iran. Certainly, the optimism that the whole affair will be over in a hurry has diminished, with the US dollar higher, oil much higher and equities taking a hit.NAB’s Sally Auld says markets are unnerved by the President’s comments as parts of the US military complex converge on the Middle East. There’s also some discussion on further weak economic data from the US a day out from the Fed meeting and it’s revised dots plot. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seem optimistic that a resolution between Israel and Iran will be found. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s a general feeling that Iran has its back against the wall and is trying to communicate that they want to d e-escalate the situation. Despite today’s market reaction, there doesn’t seem any evidence of a slowdown in the hostilities. Meanwhile, a Bank of America note overnight suggests central banks have been pulling out of the US dollar since March. Rodrigo also talks through the latest activity data from China, looks ahead to US retail sales today and prepares us for a week that could see a lot of movement in the US Big Beautiful Bill. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSince Israel fired bombs into Iran on Friday there has been bombardment on both sides. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about how the US dollar has resumed its safe haven status, with the Aussie losing ground as risk-off sentiment rises. Phil asks whether this pattern could worsen as the war seems set for more escalation rather than a rapid resolution. It will be the focus of the G7 summit over the next few days, perhaps pushing tariff talks down the order of things, even though Trump’s individual offers are set to be dished out within the next week. Six major central banks meet this week, including the Fed, with the revision of dot-plots getting the most attention. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th June 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Data from CreditorWatch shows that almost one in ten hospitality businesses in Australia shut down in the 12 months to April. Whilst the growth in insolvencies has levelled off this year, it doesn’t mean the worst is over. Michael Fingland, CEO of Brisbane-based turnaround specialists Vantage Performance, fears that the cost of living is starting to bite for businesses reliant on discretionary spend. So, what should companies be doing when income is falling and costs are rising? Michael offers some sage advice and explains how turnaround specialists tackle the issue - even for companies that are trading insolvent.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABProducer prices in the US, just like CPI, seem to have had very little impact from tariffs so far. But jobless claims are rising.  NAB’s ray Attrill says the continuing claims are similar to recession levels. All the more reason for the Fed to cut rates - but not the 2% that President Trump is now looking for. Meanwhile the President has reminded everyone that he is serious about tariffs, with envelopes ready to send to trading partners with their own bespoke tariff. That helped push the US dollar down to a two-year low. Trade and tariffs will undoubtedly be talked about at the G7 summit that kicks off this weekend in Alberta, Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTwo big bits of news overnight, First, a trade deal has been reached between the US and China, that secures supplies of China’s rare earths for the US, and allows China to import goods that had previously been blocked. But, as NAB’s Sally Auld says, it really is a statement on what was talked about in Geneva, and tariffs remain in place, at 55% on China’s exports. No surprise then, that equity markets are far from excited about it. More significant was the softer US CPI print in May. The impacts of tariffs are not making a big stamp on prices, yet, but again the market response was restrained, because its still too early to tell. PPI numbers later today might tell a different story. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe UK has grabbed a bit of the focus overnight. All eyes are on the US-China trade talks in London. Equities have been helped by the positive sentiment coming from US trade secretary Howard Lutnick, although NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether the US Commerce Secretary has a tendency to talk things up. Some of the biggest market moves though, relate to the UK’s employment detail was softer than expected, with a sharp rise in unemployment claims. Phil and Rodrigo also talk about the NAB Business Survey yesterday and look ahead to US CPI today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets had been preparing for a softer jobs print in the US on Friday. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk about a result that was better than expected, but there are still plenty of signs of weakness. Perhaps not enough, though, to support President Trump’s call for a one percent rate cut to add rocket fuel to the economy. Today the focus is on trade talks between  the US and China in London. It comes as data over the weekend shows just how much trade form China to  the US fell last month.  Locally, focus with be on the NAB business survey and Westpac consumer confidence numbers, and later this week US CPI is the number to watch.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th June 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Should we be worried about the long-term effects of the Trump presidency? The OECD this week downgraded global growth forecasts because of the uncertainty brought about by his tariff regime. It’s also seeing investors diluting their exposure to US assets. But is this Sell-America trade offset by the TACO trade which assumes Trump will always chicken-out.This week Phil talks to the FT’s chief economics commentator, Martin Wolf, about the Trump-factor, particularly in relation to the dollar. Key requirements of a reserve currency are safety and stability - have we just lost both of those things?  In which case, could another currency take-over, or some sort of basket of currencies, like the IMF SDR? Martin argues the second choice for a reserve currency is a long way behind the US dollar. Also, despite his extraordinary behaviour, financial

Friday 6th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere hasn’t been a lot of love lost between President Xi and President Trump, but a 90 minute phone call might be the start of a journey of reconciliation. But US equity markets seem to be responding more to the end of the Trump-Musk bromance, as threats being made to Tesla’s subsidies and government contracts, helping to pull the Telsa share price down more than 14  percent. The focus today, of course, is on non-farm payrolls. There’s some nervousness around what these numbers will reveal, particularly after the ADP numbers, and the higher-than-expected weekly jobless claims overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks with Phil about all of this, plus the ECB and Australia’s trade and consumption data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 5th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have reacted to a softer than expected US Services ISM, which unexpectedly dipped into contraction territory (just). That’s on top of the JOLTs numbers this week that showed a rise in  unfilled vacancies, weaker manufacturing numbers earlier in the week, and the ADP jobs data overnight showing the lowest number of new hires since the pandemic. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the weaker yields in the US but not in Europe shows where the risks are as the US waits for payrolls on Friday. Phil and Gavin also discuss Australian GDP, the latest Bank of Canada meeting and today’s data releases, which includes the Caixin Services PMI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equity markets got off to a bad start when the OECD released a downgrade to its growth forecasts but NAB’s Skye Masters says there was a change in mood when the JOLTs data was released. An expected fall in job openings didn’t materialise. There was further good news in Europe, with inflation falling faster than expected, but that’s not going to have any impact on the ECB’s rate cut priced-in for this week. China’s Caixin PMI showed a slowdown in manufacturing in May, not reflected in the official numbers released at the weekend. This morning the ABS releases Australia’s Q2 GDP. Yesterday NAB revised down its pick from 0.5% to 0.2%, quite a bit below where the RBA and most of the market is sitting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 3rd June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump clearly has no intention to roll back on his doubling of steel tariffs on Wednesday. On Truth Social this morning he declared that he didn’t want America’s future to be built with “shoddy steel” from Shanghai, rather than the “strength and pride” of Pittsburgh steel. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says all this uncertainty will slow the economy, evidenced by weakness in the May ISM data for the US. Tonight’s JOLTs data will be particularly interesting. So far employers have been holding off with new hires, whilst employees are reluctant to switch jobs; all driven by uncertainty. The question is, as time goes on, which way does the labour market go? And will we get any hint of it today?   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 2nd June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, the announcement by President Trump of a doubling in steel tariffs from Wednesday happened after the US market close. OPEC+ also announced an increase in production over the week. So, the week kicks off with more uncertainty. It finishes with the latest US jobs data, will be watching keenly by those fearing a slowdown could be driving the country towards a recession. Meanwhile, there was a slab of data released on Friday, which Phil and Taylr work their way through on today’s Morning Call. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th May 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Have we seen the worst of the US-China tariff dispute? Yan Wang, Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist at Alpine Macro seems to think so. Talking from Montreal on this weekend’s podcast, Yan explains why China needs to achieve its five percent growth target and Trump will have to deal with the economic consequences of his policies. That doesn’t mean there’s a winner and a loser. China can accommodate some of Trump’s economic demands, says Yan. The upshot is, after much volatility, we’ll arrive at a place that’s better than many investors currently fear. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US Appeals Cout has determined that Trump’s tariffs can stay, for now, but it remains a battle the President will have to fight. Kit seems markets had assumed he’d find a way to impose his tariffs anyway otherwise we would have seen more significant market moves. Th emain concern within the US seems to be how much of the new tax cuts assumed a high level of tariff revenue to compensate for the deficit. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the response, along with softer US data overnight, and to look ahead to a deluge of data out today and tonight, including retail sales for Australian and Japan, housing credit and building approvals at home, the US Core PCE and personal income and spending data, along with Canada’s GDP and China’s PMIs.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNVIDIA results show the chip manufacturer has beaten estimates on revenue, but has fallen behind on gross margin and EPS. Nonetheless, their share price was initially up in after-hours trade. It comes after a session that saw sharp falls in US and European equities. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss the RBNZ cuts, another weak long-dated bond auction, the FOMC minutes (just out) and yesterday’s Australian CPI report. Plus, some interesting observations from the Australian treasury Secretary last night. And confirmation of Trump’s hit-big then negotiate approach, that could still see us all left with a residual 10% tariff, at best. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.