Very Bad Wizards

David and Tamler talk about two famous puzzles that for different reasons have bedeviled the rationalist community – The Monty Hall Problem and Newcomb’s “paradox.” Why is it so hard for people to see that a 66% chance of winning a car is better than a 33% chance? Why do famous mathematicians struggle with this problem? And David and Tamler split on the Newcomb case – can you guess which one of us is the one boxer? Plus since we’re basically a TV recap podcast now, some thoughts on White Lotus Season 3.  The White Lotus [imdb.com] Monty Hall Problem [wikipedia.org] Numberphile on the Monty Hall Problem [youtube.com] Newcomb's "Paradox" [wikipedia.org] Nozick, R. (1969). Newcomb’s problem and two principles of choice. In Essays in honor of carl g. hempel: A tribute on the occasion of his sixty-fifth birthday (pp. 114-146). Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands.