Indications From The Conference Board

Despite a rebound from December’s job losses, employment gains in January were relatively small and likely overstated by seasonal factors. While there is much uncertainty about the next two to three months, the rollout of the vaccines will be the dominant force driving a strong employment recovery in the hardest hit industries, explains Gad Levanon, Vice President of Labor Markets at The Conference Board. He added that there will be a strong recovery in the second quarter and it will continue for the rest of the year. Elizabeth Crofoot, CED’s Senior Economist, also summarizes the ongoing debate around the appropriate size of the fiscal response. She noted that, in targeting full employment, it is important to find a balance between offsetting the risk of a slowing economy and concerns of inflationary pressures.