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Learn 7 Signs Why a Recession May Be Looming. 1. Corporate profits are tanking. Corporate profits have been weak since late in 2014 according to JP Morgan economist Michael Feroli. Growth in corporate profits has been negative since Q3 and Q4 of 2015 and flat Q1 of 2016. The three main reasons corporates are under so much pressure are the strong US dollar, collapsing oil prices, and rising wages. "Declining corporate profits as measured by US equity EPS have been closely followed by, or coincided with, a recession 81% of the time since 1900," said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas at JP Morgan. Paul Mortimer-Lee from PNB Paribas projects that the risk of recession over the next 12 months is somewhere between 40% and 50%, depending on how terrible the incoming labor market data looks. Some people speculate there is little to no earnings growth expected globally. 2. Unemployment report Only 38,000 jobs were added - far short of the 160,000 estimated. 3. The dollar has been strong since 2015. Strong dollar makes US exports m