NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 28th April 2021Markets are treading water ahead of the FDOMC meeting tomorrow morning, but there’s been a sudden rise in bond yields in the US which, NBA’s Rodrigo Catril, suggests inflation is still a concern, as optimism around a vaccine driven recovery escalates. But inflation is less of a concern in Australia - we get the CPI numbers today, Rodrigo tells us what to expect. There’s also discussion around what the Fed will say tomorrow morning, and why share prices aren’t always responding to earnings results which are generally beating expectations. Tesla, Microsoft and Alhabet are the latest to outperform. Has the market reached a peak for now? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th April 2021Equities are on the rise again as risk sentiment rises following largely positive data, including the PMIs talked about in yesterday’s Morning Call. Data over the last 24 hour shas been a little more subdued, with Germany’s IFO survey pulled down by lower expectations, and the US durable goods orders softer after the cancellation of Boeing aircraft orders. Nonetheless, the mood is generally positive, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, with Europe now getting into gear on vaccination rollouts and most S&P companies I the US have beaten their earnings estimate and copper – which is tied to the global reflation trade – is now at a decade high. The stars are aligned, for now, but the situation in developing nations – and in particularly in India – are a stark reminder that the problem won’t go away until the disease is tackled everywhere. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 26th April 2021Markets were on a positive frame of mind at the end of the week, with a strong set of PMIs in the US and Europe, which helped push equities still higher in America. But how much is too much? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether some of this is being driven by a fear of missing out. Meanwhile, with all the positive news, how long can the Fed continue to argue the need for such high levels of bond purchases and years of low interest rates? Will there be any hint that a change in direction is even being considered, when the Fed meet this week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd April 2021Shares in the US have fallen this morning on news of a sizeable hike in capital gains for wealthy Americans. Although not officially released, NAB’s Gavin Friend explains how the rumour was enough to send shares falling, after a fairly positive start to the session. The ECB was asked whether they would follow Canada’s lead in tapering bond purchases sooner, but there won’t be anyu change until the June 10th meeting. Then the ECB might change its approach, depending on progress on containing the virus. Todays, it’s a day for PMIs, with the flash numbers for April for the Eurozone, Germany, the UK and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 22nd April 2021The Canadian dollar has been boosted by the Bank of Canada markedly increasing their growth forecasts for this year, bringing forward the expected date of rate rises and introducing tapering from next week. NAB’s David de Garis says markets were expecting a tapering announcement, but were taken by surprise by the size of the growth revision, with the country in the midst of the third wave of the pandemic. On the podcast today we also look at New Zealand’s CPI read and what it can tell us about Australia’s inflation numbers next week, plus we look ahead to the ECB meeting tonight. And yesterday’s Australian retail numbers was largely a rebound in growth for WA and Victoria, but it seems cafes and restaurants may have led the charge. Is Australia heading for an avocado on toast led recovery? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st April 2021There’s a cautious mood in the markets right now, with US stocks down, with smaller caps hit particularly hard. NAB’s Ray Attrill discusses whether this is all down to a revaluation of the speed of the economic recovery. Could the tightening of credit be responsible for this? It’s hard for businesses to recover without borrowing. There’s also discussion of yesterday’s RBA minutes and the expectations for Australia’s retail numbers out this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 20th April 2021US equities dipped a little overnight, pulling back from record highs. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there does seem to be a habit for a selloff whenever equities climb above the S&P500 200-day moving average. Will it all bounce back? Well, the vaccine news remains positive, with big reductions on cases in countries where vaccines have been rolled out extensively. That’s why we’re seeing strength in the Euro and Sterling today. But what about the Aussie dollar? Is it losing its momentum? It’s another quiet day ahead, with the RBA minutes not expected to reveal much, and earnings results for United airlines and IBM. Plus Apple are announcing something new. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 19th April 2021There’s still plenty of positive sentiment around as the US, UK and Europe continue to vaccinate at pace. Europe has picked up pace and now jabbed 20 percent of its adult population. The Fed’s Christopher Waller said the economy is “set to rip”, with 6.5 percent growth this year. Yet, despite all the positive news, we have been seeing a decline in bond yields. In today’s Morning Call NAB’s Rodrigo Catril suggests it might be because concerns over inflation have been overdone and the market is coming round to the message that the Fed is trying to deliver that any rises will be transitory. Bitcoin dropped 15 percent in value on Friday, with unsubstantiated reports that the US might be clamping down on money laundering. Today is fairly quiet for data releases, with US earnings reports the only numbers of any consequence. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th April 2021The news was largely positive overnight. Retail sales in the US were better than expected, initial jobless claims were down, the Philly Fed and Empire Manufacturing Surveys were strong – yet bond yields fell sharply in the US, spreading across much of Europe. It’s not the response you’d expect. NAB’s Ray Attrill says bond analysts had been expecting a period of consolidation, but perhaps not quite so much in one day, particularly surrounded by such positive economic data. The Aussie dollar has been one beneficiary of the positive sentiment surrounding that data, and there could be more to come if the numbers out of China are strong, including Q1 GDP, March Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment, all out later on today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 15th April 2021Equities came back off the highs we saw on Tuesday/Wednesday, but their decline didn’t reflect the sentiment in the market. In fact, a four percent rise in oil has been a better indicator, along with the strength of the Aussie dollar. NAB’s David de Garis says we have sen a rotation out of the tech stocks, but the banks have generally been doing well, helped by better than expected earnings results. Our local currency has been bolstered by yesterday’s consumer confidence read, with high hopes for today’s employment data for Australia. Today there will be a lot of attention paid to US retail sales – will they add to the positive vibes? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 14th April 2021It’s been a session with mixed messages. Inflation is showing up in data, including higher than expected CPI in the US yesterday. We’re seeing it in input prices in the NAB Business Survey too, Of course central banks continue to say that any rise will be transitory, but are the markets convinced? Meanwhile, the global recovery that will give rise to that inflation could be temporarily stalled as the Johnson and Johnson vaccine deployment has been halted in the US and in Europe, where it was is expected to inoculate a quarter of all adults. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the day’s market action. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 13th April 2021It’s been a fairly quiet session overnight, with bond auctions garnering a little less interest than last time, and more to come today. We also get CPI numbers for the US today. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the market is well prepared for a big jump in the yearly reading, but a significant upside surprise could raise questions about how transitory the rises are. Fed’s Bullard spoke about the potential to look at tapering of asset purchases when the US vaccine rate reaches 75% of the population. That’s assuming having the jab results in lower infection rates – Brazil is struggling to contain an outbreak after rolling out a vaccine with a low efficacy rate. NAB’s Business Survey is out today as well. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 12th April 2021Equities in the US finished Friday on new highs, ahead of corporate earning this week and despite a rise in bond yields. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says a lot of the optimism is being driven by vaccine optimism, as President Biden once again brings the dates of his vaccine targets forward. The spectre of rising inflation continues to hang over markets, particularly as PPI prices rose last week. But Jerome Powell sued his 60 minutes appearance on US TV to again make the point that any rise in inflation would be transitory. Nonetheless, a poll of economists are expecting a rate rise at least a year ahead of the Fed’s schedule. Aussie jobs data will be a focus this week, along with China’s aggregate financing data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th April 2021Australia has become the latest nation to express concern about the use of the Astra Zeneca vaccines on young people, except here young is anyone under 50. N AB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s unlikely to slow down the speed of the vaccine rollout, but it could have consequences in Europe. Jerome Powell offered little new when he spoke on an IMF panel overnight, talking down the prospect of sustainable inflation. But the ANZ business survey for New Zealand showed rising inflation expectations. Phil Dobbie asks, what does the RBNZ do if inflation is maintained above its target rate, whilst the rest of the world doesn’t? And CPI numbers of China will be worth looking out for later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 8th April 2021It’s been one of the quietest sessions for some time. The FOMC said nothing that surprised markets, and Janet Yellen detailing how they would pay for the $2.25 trillion infrastructure package was met with a similar muted response. NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests the markets are considering a bit of rebalancing, particularly when it comes to Europe. Even if they are slower to recover the difference between the US and Europe will only be a few months. The destination is the same. The pound struggled today as an announcement was made about limiting use of the Astra Zeneca vaccine for the under thirties. Generally, though, the word ‘lacklustre’ sums up market action overnight. Sadly, the only currency to see significant losses was the Aussie dollar. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 7th April 2021There were no significant market moves overnight. The US dollar has fallen a little further, bond yields are down and equities have cooled somewhat. NAB’s David de Garis says, maybe markets are taking Jerome Powell’s words to heart that it’s a long road ahead and the Fed is going to stay the course. That’s certainly the line echoed by the RBA yesterday even though, like the US, the news is largely positive. Vaccination rates continue to be a determinant of economic recovery, with Canada’s President Trudeau announcing a third wave on his home soil, where the number of people having the jab remains very low. FOMC minutes are out tomorrow; we’ll talk about those, hot off the press, tomorrow morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 6th April 2021US equities have been boosted by a string of positive data. The ISM manufacturing read at the end of last week bounced back sharply, and the services number reached a new record high this morning. Plus, non-farm payrolls on Friday also punched the lights out. NAB’s Ray Attrill says even though shares responded, Treasury yields are actually lower than they were before this swathe of positive numbers and the US dollar has fallen, indicating it is responding negatively to risk sentiment at the moment. Today the RBA meets, job vacancy numbers are out for Australia and the Caixin Services PMI is out in China. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 1st April 2021Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen are about to give the details of their long-awaited infrastructure spending plan, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil Dobbie that most of the detail has already been released. And the response to the markets has clearly been favourable, with share prices reaching new highs overnight. Bond yields have also been rising. They also discuss Australia’s residential building approvals, US jobs data and China’s rising PMIs. Tapas explains how a slower recovery in Europe could actual be good for the Chinese economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 31st March 2021US 10 year Treasury yields hit a 14 month high overnight, as the US dollar rose higher. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill how much of today’s movement can be attributed to end of month and end of quarter rebalancing? And how much of a reaction can we expect after Joe Biden announces his infrastructure plan later tonight – which could cost anything from US$2.2 to 4 trillion. There are plenty of moving parts to influence markets, from the total size of the package to how it will be funded – government debt or taxation. There could also be a response to jobs numbers from the US today and on Friday. The Fed’s Raphael Bostic has predicted a million jobs a month over summer, if that happens sooner it could put pressure on bond yields over the long weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 30th March 2021NAB’s Gavin Friend says, early in the session the fire-sale of $20 billion of stocks held by Archegos Capital was all everyone was talking about. But, as it became clear there was little further contagion, attention shifted to the floating of the Ever Given and the easing of lockdowns. The focus now, he says, is on price pressures, starting today as German reports preliminary inflation numbers for March. There will be a lot of attention focused on Joe Biden’s infrastructure proposal, with reports that the total spend could be as much as $4 trillion. Weekly Australian payrolls numbers are out today, but Thursday’s job vacancies data will garner much more interest. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.