NAB Morning Call

Monday 29th March 2021There was quite a bit of optimism in the air on Friday as we career towards the end of the month and the end of the quarter this week. NAB’s David de Garis says this could account for some of the volatility we saw at the end of the week, with Goldman Sachs selling off $10.5 billion in stocks. Nonetheless, shares were up after a late in the session rally, which carried through to Asia. So, could there be more volatility in this shortened week? There will be a lot of attention on jobs numbers (in Australia and the US), whilst the blockage in the Suez will cause supply concerns. An attempt late Sunday to float the stranded vessel failed and now it seems the only way forward is to start removing containers, which will take time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 26th March 2021It’s been another mixed session. NAB’s Gavin Friend says, on the one side there’s the tantalising prospect of an economic reopening in the northern hemisphere that is almost touchable, but there’s also the issues around vaccine production and, in Europe, concerns about how many people are prepared to take it. Equity markets are subdued, with another move away from tech stocks. Interest in the 7 year bond auction in the US was better than last time, but still cautious. Whilst most Fed speakers reiterate that, even though economic growth might be higher than expected by the year end, interest rates won’t budge till 2024, although Bostick predicts a much shorter timescale. Jo Biden, meanwhile, has doubled his forecast for the number of jabs in American arms in his first 100 days in office. And oil prices rose again as the Suez Canal remains closed, possibly for days, maybe even weeks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 25th March 2021There’s a realisation emerging, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, that even though countries are pressing ahead with vaccine role outs, the speed of recovery might be slower than envisaged. The political wrangles over vaccines supplies from the EU have added to this feeling, with a risk-off mood returning slowly to markets. Oil rose sharply as an oversized ship has blocked the Suez Canal – expectations that it might quickly be moved have gone because, well, it’s still there. There’s a lot of bonds being auctioned in the US in the next 24 hours to keep a watchful eye on, and Joe Biden gives his first press conference, focusing on geopolitics and the Build Back Better infrastructure plans. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 24th March 2021Market sentiment has switched in the last 24 hours, with concerns that the economic recovery from COVID-19 might be slower than anticipated. The airline industry will feel some of the hurt, with European summer holidays likely to be off the agenda for most Brits. Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell were also guarded in their comments about the pace of recovery in the US, when they spoke to the House Financial Services Committee. The New Zealand dollar was the currency hit the hardest. NAB’s David de Garis says much of the fall is to do with government measures to try and restrict house price inflation, moving demand from investors to home buyers. Watch the PMIs tonight for signs of a widening gap between the European and UK economies, as Britain takes the jab many times faster than their cousins over the channel. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd March 2021There were big rises in US shares overnight, with the NASDAQ rising 1.7% in this session, helped by a moderate fall in Treasury yields. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says news of a higher than expected infrastructure spending plan also helped boost equities. Reports suggest as much as $3 trillion will be spent, a mere $1 trillion more than had been anticipated. Trials of the Astra Zeneca vaccine in the US also came up with very positive results, which could lead to approval, with the bonus of perhaps encouraging more Europeans to take the vaccine. The slow rollout is adding to the number of new cases in Europe and in parts of the US, which could slow the speed of economic recovery. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 22nd March 2021The Fed will push on with ending its lower capital requirements held against Treasurys, sticking with a schedule that will see the so-called supplementary-leverage ratio (SLR) ending on 31st March. Although not unexpected, NAB’S Rodrigo Catril says it risks weakening the appetite for bonds at a time when there is a much higher issuance doing down the pipeline. He explains why markets calmed down a little later I the Friday session. Today we can expect some response to President Erdogan’s decision to sack Turkey’s central bank governor for having the temerity to raise interest rates. Otherwise, it could be a fairly quiet start to the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th March 2021There was more reaction to the FOMC meeting today, with bond yields rising sharply. Oil has also risen a lot as tensions mount between the US and Russia. Biden referring to Putin as a “killer” doesn’t seem to have gone down too well, and now with the threat of sanctions from the US there are fears Russia will up oil production in response to impact the US shale oil industry. The Bank of England followed the same script as the FOMC overnight, expecting a faster recovery but, just like the Fed, they are going to let the economy run hot before they contemplate a rate rise. As NAB’s David de Garis points out, the UK would relish the idea of the economy running hot anytime soon. In Australia labour market data was a big upside surprise, with unemployment down to levels not forecast to be reached for a year. Perhaps today’s retail numbers will also be welcome news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday March 18th 2021The Fed has upped its growth expectations for the US economy, driven by the fiscal support and the vaccine rollout. But Fed Chair Powell says they are still expecting to keep interest rates low through to 2023, and they are not even talking about starting to talk of tapering of their QE activity anytime soon. He also said inflation was expected to pick up in the shorter term, but this would be transitory. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether the markets are convinced on this. Plus, what to except from NZ GDP this morning, and Australia’s labour market data from the ABS today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 17th March 2021There wasn’t much movement in shares, bond yields or currencies overnight, despite weaker retail numbers out of the US. It’s a different story for Australia with strong jobs data yesterday ahead of the official ABS Labour market data later in the week. NAB’s David de Garis says the RBA has suggested that many big companies have already made their adjustments on employment levels ahead of the end of JobKeeper, so there is a reduced risk of any sort of shock as the scheme closes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th March 2021The fear of blood clots from injections means use of the Astra Zeneca vaccine has been suspended in an increasing number of European countries, slowing down the rollout, whilst the UK pushes ahead, reaching almost 40 percent of the population so far. This issue of lagging behind is not just impacting the economy, but is also playing into the strength of the Euro, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. Generally though it’s been a quiet session, with minimal movement sin bond yields, shares and currencies, ahead of the FOMC meeting later in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 15th March 2021Bonds yields rose sharply again on Friday, with 10 year Treasuries reaching their highest level since February last year. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the inflation break-even component actually fell slightly, as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed inflation expectations had fallen slightly. Meanwhile the cyclical rotation theme continues as the vaccination rollout accelerates in the US and UK. It’s a different story in Europe, of course, with Italy returning to lockdown today as infection numbers rise sharply, with Germany heading in the same direction. The FOMC will be the main focus this week, along with Aussie retail sales and employment numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th March 2021Asset markets continue to be drawn by bond markets, says NAB’s David de Garis, on today’s podcast. With stimulus coming down the line, and jobs data showing further signs of recovery, you might have expected increased inflation concerns, but yesterday’s CPI figures seem to have calmed those concerns for now. But the ECB is still kicking into action, promising a faster bond buying spree under its pandemic emergency purchase programme, with Christine Lagarde concerned about the rate of recovery. Europe, of course, continues to suffer from a slow vaccine rollout – reaching 10% of the population in France so far, compare to 36 percent in the UK. Britain’s trade numbers will be interesting today, not because of COVID, but to se the impacts of Brexit on trade with Germany and the rest of Europe. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th March 2021The US 10 years notes auction this morning was a little softer than anticipated, but saw yields higher than last time. But NAB’s Gavin Friend says the story of the day was really the softer US inflation numbers, which saw yields pull back and helped stocks rise, with more rotation away from tech stocks. Meanwhile Philip Lowe from the RBA has been pushing back on market pricing, suggesting rates won’t rise until 2024, saying they would need to see wage gains sustainably above three percent. Whilst the RBA concerns are growing pains, the ECB has a different issue, says Gavin, because of their delayed response to the vaccine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th March 2021Shares have reverted to a focus on tech in the US with a sharp rise in tech stocks. In fact, almost everything is a reversal on yesterday, with the US dollar weakening, the Aussie dollar strengthening, and bond yields falling. Chinese shares have stopped their decent, perhaps the alleged injection of cash from the government worked, for now. The expectation that the global recovery will be strong was reinforced by revised OECD forecasts and a record high for business confidence in yesterday’s NAB Business Survey. The inflation fixation right now means all eyes will be on the US and China CPI numbers tonight, as well as listening in to see what the RBA’s Philip Lowe has say on rising bond yields. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th March 2021Us Treasury yields pushed steadily higher overnight, reaching 1.6 percent for 10 year Treasuries. These higher rates have loosened the appetite for tech stocks in the US and Europe, with the NASDAQ falling further. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the speed of the rise in bond yields has taken markets by surprise, and a period of consolidation seems reasonable, particularly as the injection of the $1.9 trillion stimulus, which has prompted the rise, has been expected for some time. The Aussie dollar has been impacted, along with EM currencies. The Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey is perhaps the first central bank governor to highlight that an inflation fuelled rate rise is as much a risk as having to lower rates if the recovery is slower than anticipated. Talk about an each way bet! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th March 2021The US senate has passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, so it will almost certainly become law this week. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this will add to inflation concerns, particularly as oil is also racing ahead thanks to the OPEC+ decision last week to hold off on easing supply cuts. China’s trade figures over the weekend are another sign that the global economy is quickly getting back up to speed, as where US jobs numbers on Friday, although Janet Yellen has been quick to point out you shouldn’t jump to conclusions over the lower unemployment rate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th March 2021Bond yields are on the rise, in the US and in Australia – for very similiar reasons. Jerome Powell failed to reassure markets that the Fed had a plan to cope with rising yields. As NAB’s David de Garis explains, the Fed governor was saying the Fed had the tools to use if conditionals materially changed, just as conditions were materially changing! In Australia markets were clearly hoping for more bond buying from the RBA, so when they went returned to their previous buying level, markets were disappointed and bond yields rose again. All of this, of course, driven by inflation fears, for which a spike in oil prices hasn’t helped help. The timing couldn’t have been worse from OPEC+, who failed to agree on easing production cuts. Tonight we get non-farm payrolls numbers in the US and China’s National People’s Congress is on over the weekend. There’s a bit going on. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 4th March 2021Bond yield have been rising sharply overnight. This time it’s being driven not just by optimism about the speed of the global recovery, but also by the likelihood that the UK government will be issuing around £50b higher than the market expected. Chancellor Rishi Sunak has extended the furlough program through to September, along with other assistance measures. This latest jump in yields couldn’t be timelier with Jerome Powell speaking later today, no doubt reiterating the point that the Fed sees no reason to be concerned about inflation. US jobless claims will also be of interest later on – they were down last week, but the ADP employment numbers told a different story last night, with fewer jobs around. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd March 2021All eyes will be on Australia’s GDP read this morning, which NAB’s Ray Attrill says is expected to be close to 3% growth QoQ, driven by consumer spending. The warnings yesterday from China’s banking regulator, Mr Guo Shuqing, that the US and Europe face bubbles from excessive leverage haven’t had any lasting impact. The RBA continued to provide guidance that rate rises weren’t likely until 2024 and made it clear that the $4 billion purchases announced on Monday were simply a bring forward, so we can assume they will be compensated by lesser purchases to keep the schedule on-track. Tonight the US ADP employment numbers will be a focal point ahead of non-farm payrolls at the end of the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd March 2021The RBA might have left itself with very little to say today, having upped their bond buying in response to the sharp rise in yields last week. With bond yields still significantly higher than they were at the beginning of the year Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what else the RBA can do as the Aussie economy finds itself in a better position than most developed nations. The return to normal overnight, with equities back on the rise, has been partially fuelled by stronger than anticipated ISM manufacturing numbers for the US. In fact, most data lately has been on the upside. The Euro is one of the weaker currencies today, perhaps because of an expectation that the ECB too will increase their bond-buying. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.