Larry Williams Drive

In my opinion, National MPs need to bite the bullet and ask Chris Luxon to step aside. I don’t enjoy saying this because personally I like Chris Luxon and have a fair amount of respect for him. But I think the chances are now very high that this is going to happen before the election. He is going to lose the leadership and perhaps the only real choice National MPs now have is how messy they allow this to become. I’ll explain why I think he loses the leadership — and I think it’s simple maths. National’s polling is really poor. It’s sub-30 in multiple polls. You can’t write those off as rogue results. The numbers are consistently bad and at that level the party is on track to lose around 11 MPs in November. Those 11 MPs do not want to lose their jobs and within that group are the people now agitating for a change of leadership. For that agitation to stop, National’s polling would need to lift enough to save at least some of those MPs’ seats.So how does the polling improve? The economy would have to improve. An