Bloomberg Surveillance

On an extended episode of Bloomberg Surveillance, Tom Keene and David Gura discuss the election of Donald Trump. Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg View columnist and chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, says Trump's victory shows how quickly the improbable can become reality. Bob Hormats, Kissinger Associates' vice chairman, says if President-elect Donald Trump is wise, he will reach out to Hillary Clinton to repair the fractured country. Then, Tom Barrack, the founder of Colony Capital, says the cadence of Donald Trump as President will be much difference than the cadence of Donald Trump as candidate. Tim Pawlenty, CEO of the Financial Services Roundtable and former Governor of Minnesota, says a Trump presidency could benefit banks. Also, Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, says we will see an incredible amount of international hedging away from America. Finally, David Malpass, founder of Encima Global, says the GOP-led House and Senate will be critical for Trump's policy implementation.

On election day 2016, Tom Keene and David Gura talk to Yale professor Stephen Roach, who says the decency of the American people will prevail when choosing the next president. Then they speak with Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, who says the GOP may split into two major parties after the U.S. election. Also, Harris Associates' David Herro says a Clinton presidency and a GOP congress is the best market outcome. Finally, Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, says he's a big fan of gridlock -- and that a Clinton presidency with a Republican House and Senate is the best of all worlds.

Tom Keene and David Gura talk to former the Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who says that Fed forecasts are no better than those of a good economist. Prior to that, RBC Capital Markets' Jonathan Golub says fiscal policy attempts to move something that is unmovable while Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics' chief economist, says the Fed is tightening in December no matter who wins the election. Then, James Stavridis, dean of The Fletcher School at Tufts University, says if Hillary Clinton wins, she will unlikely be different from President Obama. Finally, Dan Clifton, Strategas Research Partners' head of policy research, says Hillary Clinton has suggested she's going to try to be bipartisan early on in the administration if she wins.

Bill Gross, a fund manager at Janus Capital Management, says people should be cautious despite a good jobs report because structural changes such as technology are displacing jobs. Prior to that, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, says the jobs data bar isn't set high for a December Fed rate hike. Alan Krueger, a Princeton University professor, says he doesn't put a lot of weight on today's job report ahead of the Fed's decision next month.

Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, says pound strength after the UK vote was significant, but whether it lasts is a big question mark. Charles Dumas, chief economist at TSL Research, says the BOE may exceed their inflation target by the end of 2016. Danny Blanchflower, a former BOE policymaker & Dartmouth professor, says the U.K. court ruling forces the government to make a more clear position on their bargaining position to leave the European Union. Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard, says free trade uncertainty is a big negative.

Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, says the Fed is excessively sensitive to what it thinks the markets might do and how markets react. Jim Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, says Janet Yellen and central banks ought to be nearly invisible. Ken Doctor, author and columnist of Newsonomics, says we have half the number of journalists in local newsrooms than we had in 1990. Anne-Marie Slaughter, New America CEO & Princeton professor, says part of the problem of globalization is that it has left so many people who aren't part of a global network behind.

Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Holdings, says the Fed desperately wants to move short rates up and is likely to do so in December. John Glass, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, says Shake Shack is unique within the market because of its fantastic brand and high volume of sales. Jay Winik, a historian commissioned by the Council on Foreign Relations, says the election isn't rigged, but we may be facing warning signs that we need to make our voting system more secure.

Steve Rattner, Willett Advisors chairman, says that a divided government, an ongoing email investigation and a low approval rating should make Americans depressed about a possible Clinton presidency. Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, says the euro economy hasn't taken any significant hit from Brexit so far. Steve Wieting, global chief strategist at Citi Private Bank, says central banks are on a reasonable course heading into 2017. Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners, says Disney has its own problems, including falling earnings estimates, and isn't a likely bidder for Twitter.

Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, says rates are in a long-term bottoming process. Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, says Google has a lot to be excited about and has kept revenue growth going. Sara Senatore, a senior analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, says the Chipotle brand is still very good. Robert Peck, senior director of internet research at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, says big tech companies are continuing to grow and it shows the power and scale of companies like Google and Amazon.

Bloomberg Intelligence's Paul Sweeney weighs in on Twitter cutting nine percent of its workforce. Seth Masters, chief investment officer at Bernstein Global Wealth Management, says bond investors should shorten duration as long-duration debt faces price risk with rising interest rates. Ira Jersey, senior portfolio manager at OppenheimerFunds, says he is overweight on emerging markets and bullish on Brazil. Ken Sena, managing director at Evercore ISI, comments on Twitter's earnings and the AT&T and Time Warner merger.

Dominic Konstam, global head of rates research at Deutsche Bank, says the U.S. will have to consider negative rates on a five- to 10-year view. Walter Piecyk, a BTIG tech analyst, says Apple needs to focus on getting iPhone volumes up to gain Samsung customers who don't have a product. David Kostin, chief strategist at Goldman Sachs, says top-line revenue growth is likely to grow four to five percent. Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, says there is slack in the suburban markets and it may take another year for it to tighten like it has in the city.

Kate Moore, chief equity strategist at BlackRock, says nimble and different companies are capturing growth. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, says a low-growth economy is giving rise to the politics of anger. Michael Chertoff, chairman of the Chertoff Group, says Yahoo's failure to disclose the hacking of 500 million accounts will have an impact on the merger with Verizon. John Engler, Business Roundtable president and a former three-term governor of Michigan, says we need to retrain people who have lost jobs to fit with our new economy.

Three experts on media and telecom weigh in on the AT&T and Time Warner merger. Scott Galloway, a professor of marketing at New York University, says we are at peak advertising and people will pay to opt out of advertising. Craig Moffett, a partner and senior research analyst at MoffettNathanson, says an AT&T and Time Warner deal won't result in cost savings. Rich Greenfield and Walter Piecyk, analysts at BTIG, say we are moving away from watching linear television and moving to an on-demand world with no commercials. Plus, Oliver Hart, a professor of economics at Harvard University and this year's Nobel Prize winner in economics, says he would ask about the efficiency gains of AT&T and Time Warner.

Richard Greenfield, an analyst of media and technology at BTIG, says HBO and Warner Bros. are the crown jewels of Time Warner and expects Viacom and CBS to merge. Brian Wieser, a senior research analyst at Pivotal Research Group, weighs in on the potential AT&T and Time Warner merger and the evolution of digital media. Nick Heymann, an analyst at William Blair, says project financing will be a big deal for GE. Sara Senatore, a research analyst at Sanford Bernstein, says McDonald's Corp. should be able to grow in this industry, but not very fast.

Gina Martin Adams, an equity strategist at Wells Fargo says stock valuations for consumer staples are the most dangerous. Carsten Brzeski, the chief economist at ING, says the ECB will extend QE until the end of 2017. Ben Emons, the chief economist at Intellectus Partners, says the European economy is slowly recovering and discusses QE after the ECB rate decision. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says the ECB can continue with its QE program without technical or political constraints.

Alan Ruskin, co-head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, says the pound could go into free fall. Sebastian Mallaby, senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses his new book on Alan Greenspan and says Greenspan called the Fed a historic disaster. Alan Krueger, professor of economics at Princeton University and an economic adviser to Hillary Clinton, speaks about her economics plans and keeping the election focused on the economy.

John Strickland, JLS director and analyst, says Ryanair is healthy despite pressure from the pound. Howard Ward, chief investment officer of growth equities at GAMCO Investors, says he would like to see Apple go after Time Warner. Ann Duignan, an analyst at JPMorgan, says Caterpillar has a strong board after the C-suite shakeup.

Brad Hintz, professor of finance at New York University, said London will remain the financial center post-Brexit. Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Nicolaus, said there is no sense of immediacy to raise rates at this point. Matthew Mish, credit strategist at UBS, said foreign clients are increasingly looking at the U.S. high-grade, longer-duration credit markets.

Brad Hintz, adjunct professor of finance at New York University, says this was a good summer for fixed income for the banks. Dan Yergin, vice chairman of IHS, says the U.S. needs higher economic growth and more entrepreneurial energy. James Stavridis, dean of The Fletcher School of Tufts University, says he expects positive growth numbers in Greece next year. Erik Oja, banking analyst at CFRA Research, says this quarter's bank earnings are similar to last quarter, with the four major banks all beating on top-line and bottom-line expectations.

Edmund Phelps, winner of the 2006 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, says innovation is making workers more effective, but what they are producing is less valuable and that's why wages are falling. Alessio de Longis, portfolio manager at OppenheimerFunds, says he expects a modest bounce in emerging market growth. Stan Collender, executive vice president of Qorvis MSLGROUP, says the uncertainty coming out of Washington means there will be more talk of a government shutdown.