The Meb Faber Show

Today’s guest is Jim Reid, Global Head of Macro Research at Deutsche Bank. In today’s episode, Jim walks through lessons from his annual report, The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing, which covers over 200 years of market data from 56 countries. He explains why cash is one of the riskiest long-term assets, how inflation quietly destroys wealth, and why valuation is the single most reliable predictor of long-term returns. He also discusses how fiat money has reshaped bonds, gold, and equities since 1971.  To close, Jim reminds us that history consistently rewards investors who buy cheap, diversify globally, and respect long-term market cycles. (0:00) Starts (1:54) Importance of real vs nominal returns (5:36) Historical returns of gold (8:28) Global investment opportunities (18:06) Bond market performance and growth's impact on asset prices (23:11) Potential impact of AI (30:34) Valuation importance (37:03) Index weighting strategies (42:43) Predictors of bond performance and equity return distri

Watch on YouTube. Today’s returning guests are Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisers, and D.A. Wallach, a venture capital investor for Time BioVentures. In today’s episode, we unpack the recent biotech surge through the lens of Dan’s recently published biotech report. We also explore China’s growing biotech market, shifting IPO and VC trends, and how valuation tools like CAPE fit into today’s regime. Finally, we also discuss technology’s effect on productivity and corporate profits in the US, Japan’s economic anomaly, home country bias, and more. (0:00) Starts (1:20) Dan's research on the biotech sector (19:10) D.A. on biotech in China (27:01) IPO landscape (31:01) Biotech VC update from D.A. (32:16) Are US stocks overvalued? (51:53) Dan's view of Japanese stocks (57:40) Global equity markets and home country bias (1:03:34) Book recommendations (1:11:55) Wrap-up and future plans ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds an

In today’s radio show, Meb breaks down why market-cap–weighted investing may be nearing its limits after an extraordinary run in U.S. stocks. He explores CAPE ratios near historic extremes, the quiet resurgence of gold and commodities, and why equal weight, value, and global markets are suddenly back in the conversation.  To close, Meb explains how trend following and real assets can help investors navigate regime shifts. Note: this was recorded on January 29, 2026. (0:00) Starts (3:03) US stock market update (11:24) Global stock performance (18:03) The role of gold in asset allocation (27:52) Demographics of gold investors (35:47) One-fund portfolios & 351 conversions (42:07) Meb's travel plans ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email

My guest today is Russell Napier, an independent financial market strategist, financial historian, author of The Solid Ground investment report, and founder of the charitable venture The Library of Mistakes. In today’s episode, Russell explains why investors are asking the wrong questions at a critical turning point in financial history. He how financial repression, shifting monetary regimes, and political priorities are reshaping capital markets. To close, he explains the dangers of yield chasing, why technology won’t defeat inflation, and why gold may be signaling what comes next. (0:00) Starts (3:14) Regime change & parallels to post-World War II Europe (8:06) The search for yield is dangerous (17:38) The disconnect between GDP growth and equity returns (23:14) The impact of inflation & deflation on equity valuations (25:56) Technology doesn't defeat inflation (30:20) Monetary system changes, gold prices, and American exceptionalism (37:50) Extrapolation is the opiate of the people (48:26) Book r

Today’s guest is Richard Bernstein, Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, which he founded in 2009. He was previously the Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch. In today’s episode, Richard argues that the market is defined by rampant speculation and extreme narrowness. He explains why he’s bullish on both dividend-paying and international stocks and believes crypto is the first global investment bubble. To close, he warns that corporate credit is priced for perfection, inflation risks aren’t gone, and diversification is the best defense in a bubble-prone market. (0:00) Starts (1:20) Richard on market narrowness & speculation (6:21) The Earnings Expectations Life Cycle (12:33) Non-US stocks are undervalued (18:38) Small cap trends and long-term investment themes (24:14) American Industrialization Renaissance (27:10) Corporate credit risk (33:42) Is the Fed independent? (36:38) Is crypto the first global investment bubble? (41:11) The importance of financial history (46:07)

My guest today is Marc Faber, editor of the “Gloom Boom & Doom Report.” In today’s episode, Marc explores the unpredictable nature of financial markets, the resurgence of precious metals and how money printing has fueled economic inequality. He argues that bonds are currently under-owned and may offer opportunity, and explains why emerging markets such as Thailand and Vietnam deserve consideration.  To close, Marc underscores the importance of diversification in an increasingly uncertain world. (0:00) Starts (2:25) The rise of precious metals (10:18) Impact of money printing on asset prices and social problems (23:14) Bond bull case (29:31) History of wealth redistribution (36:13) Global investment insights: Thailand & beyond (48:40) Importance of diversification ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Want to learn more about 3

My guest today is Cullen Roche, Chief Investment Officer at Orcam Financial Group and Discipline Funds. His latest book is Your Perfect Portfolio: The ultimate guide to using the world’s most powerful investing strategies. In today’s episode, Cullen walks through the principles of portfolio construction. He emphasizes the importance of viewing investments as a means of savings rather than a quick path to wealth. Cullen explores the significance of time horizons in investment decisions, why real returns are what matter, and the origins of the 60/40 portfolio. (0:00) Starts (1:38) Principles of portfolio construction (6:12) Real vs nominal returns (11:01) Asset allocation and time horizon considerations (26:59) Evaluating the role of government bonds in portfolios (30:21) Origins of the 60/40 portfolio (37:44) The forward cap portfolio (46:49) The concept of duration in investing (56:23) Disciplined Funds (1:02:39) Asset liability matching (1:03:15) Factors influencing investor behavior ----- Foll

Today’s guest is Jack Ablin, CIO at Cresset Asset Management, which manages over $70 billion AUM. Jack was RIA Intel’s “CIO of the Year” for 2022 and was previously the CIO at BMO for 17 years. In today’s episode, Jack walks through the ins and outs of investing in founder-led companies and what has led them to historically outperform. He also explains his approach to asset allocation, which structures portfolios based on time horizons rather than traditional asset classes. Finally, he offers an outlook for equities and fixed income next year, discusses private market opportunities, and looks at the future of Cresset Asset Management. (0:00) Starts (1:51) Overview of Cresset Asset Management (6:40) Founder-led companies: Advantages and portfolio impact (19:52) Fixed income and private market investment strategies (26:32) Future prospects in Opportunity Zones and equities (31:15) Currency considerations and foreign investment opportunities (37:01) Jack's most memorable investment ----- Follow Meb on

Today’s guest is David McWilliams, an economist, podcast host and author. David worked at the Central Bank of Ireland, UBS and BNP Paribas and is the founder of the Kilkenomics Festival, a unique blend of economics and stand-up comedy. His book is called The History of Money: A Story of Humanity, which is my favorite book from 2025. In today’s episode, David walks through the evolution of money over the last 5,000 years. He explains why money is a foundational social technology that is central to every aspect of our civilization, from the political to the artistic. He delves into historical anecdotes—from clay tablets in Mesopotamia to Gutenberg’s printing press to Martin Luther’s disruptive influence on the church. Throughout the episode, he emphasizes that economists need to do a better job helping people understand money and its role in navigating modern economic principles. (0:00) Starts (1:26) David explains the Kilkenomics Festival (3:41) David McWilliams on "Money, The History of Money, A Story of

Today’s guest is Rick Rieder. Rick oversees more than $2 trillion in assets as the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock. He also heads the Fundamental Fixed Income business and the Global Allocation Investment Team. In today’s episode, Rick discusses the current state of the markets, focusing on year-end dynamics, free cash flow at big-tech companies, and the evolving economic landscape since Liberation Day. He explains both what he expects the Fed to do and what he thinks they should do, and how that relates to portfolio construction. The discussion also explores the differences between gambling and investing, lessons from tennis that apply to investing, and much more. (0:00) Starts (1:31) Rick Rieder's market thoughts (4:23) Market sentiment and cash flow impacts (7:18) Small caps, M&A potential, and broad economic concerns (17:12) Interest rate forecasts (21:13) BINC ETF and fixed income outlook (24:28) Gambling vs. investing (31:36) Perspectives on precious metals and

Today’s guest is Nick Maggiulli. Nick is the COO for Ritholtz Wealth Management. He writes over at Of Dollars at Data and is the author of two books: Just Keep Buying and The Wealth Ladder. In today’s episode, Nick discusses the parallels between financial and medical advice, the differences in asset ownership across wealth levels, and the importance of adapting financial strategies over time. He also explores wealth mobility, the role of luck in wealth accumulation, and the challenges of diversification versus concentration in investment strategies. (0:00) Starts (1:38) Nick explains the wealth ladder (6:48) Asset composition across wealth levels (13:48) Human capital and wealth data analysis (19:33) Diversification vs. concentration (22:44) Behavioral finance and investment strategies (25:56) Real estate ownership and investment timing strategies (36:26) Fun investing stats (44:51) Nick's most memorable investment ----- Sponsor: Alpha Architect - Learn more about Alpha Architect and important

Today’s guest is Antti Ilmanen, Global Co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR Capital Management. In today’s episode, Antti discusses the complexities of investment returns, the importance of understanding both objective and subjective expectations, and the dangers of relying on past performance as a guide for future investments. We explore the current state of the US market, the role of diversifiers in portfolios, and the behavioral biases that affect investor decisions. Antti also contrasts the behaviors of bond investors, which tend to be more contrarian, and equity investors, which tend to extrapolate. (0:00) Starts (1:13) Humility in forecasting market expectations (8:26) Comparing institutional and retail investor behavior (24:33) Sentiment analysis in markets (36:18) Bond vs. equity investor mindsets (48:11) Liquid vs. illiquid alternative investments (56:26) The diversification benefits of trend following ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click he

Today’s guest is Chris Clark. Chris was a biotech PM for 10 years at RS Investments, managing $4.5 billion. In today’s episode, Chris discusses the complexities of the biotech sector, which has suffered a dramatic drawdown the past few years. He begins by explaining how biotech works, why it’s such a unique sector, and what has kept investors and companies frozen the past few years. He also explains the different perspectives of venture capitalists and public market investors, the current regulatory environment and how AI may reshape drug development. (0:00) Starts (1:20) Biotech industry overview (18:09) Can you be a quant in biotech? (25:09) Biotech market cap distribution and benchmark underweighting (34:47) Addressing biotech volatility, market outlook, and non-pro investing tips (47:02) Private vs. public biotech investments (1:01:32) Global biotech markets (China) (1:09:48) AI and regulatory impact on biotech (1:21:14) US healthcare spending (1:33:48) Chris' most memorable investment -----

Today’s guest is Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Global Chief Economist and Global Head of Vanguard’s Investment Strategy Group. His latest research on megatrends is covered in his book, Coming Into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments. In today’s episode, Joe explains why the coming decade for the U.S. economy will be shaped by a tug-of-war between AI and demographics-driven deficits. While the most likely outcome is optimistic (the benefits of AI offset demographic pressures), the next most likely outcome is pessimistic (AI fails to meet our expectations and growth tumbles, putting pressure on the government’s balance sheet). Joe emphasizes the need for investors to prepare for non-consensus outcomes and embrace diversification to navigate this uncertain future.  Listen to Joe’s first appearance on the show in February 2020. (0:00) Starts (1:40) AI's impact on the economy (7:26) Megatrends and technological change (19:18) Financial market signals, narratives, and nonconsensus outcomes

Today’s guest is Kathryn Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex, where she’s also the co-portfolio manager for the firm’s Managed Futures Strategy and Global Alternatives Strategy. She also co-authored the book Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha. In today’s episode, Meb and Katy discuss the tough year for managed futures strategies, which have experienced the 2nd largest drawdown in the last quarter century. Katy walks through the history of drawdowns and recoveries since 2000, explaining investors who have been patient in the past have been rewarded when the strategy recovers. She emphasizes managed futures’ ability to serve as a diversifier to stocks, revisits her research on crisis alpha, and touches on the rise of managed futures ETFs as a way for investors to get exposure to this asset class. Listen to Katy’s first appearance in May 2021. (0:00) Starts (1:05) Katy's thoughts on managed futures in 2025 (3:31) Lessons from past drawdowns (10:04) The patien

Today’s guest is Peter Levin, co-founder of Griffin Gaming Partners, the largest singularly focused gaming investment vehicle in the world. Peter was previously the CEO and co-founder of Nerdist Industries, which was acquired by Legendary Entertainment. He began his career at CAA, had a stint at Disney, sold a company to UFC, and was also an early advisor and investor to Rovio aka Angry Birds. In today’s episode, Peter discusses the evolution of the gaming industry, highlighting the dominance of gaming IP. He touches on the rise of indie games, the impact of AI on the space and why he avoids trends like esports, AR and VR. (0:00) Starts (1:47) Peter Levin's background in gaming (5:37) Gaming's transition to mobile gaming and post-2000s developments (13:49) Comparison of gaming industry to traditional media and the rise of indie gaming (20:45) Changes in gaming revenue models (27:30) VR and AR challenges (35:50) Using a Data-driven approach to invest in gaming startups (47:00) Impact of AI on game dev

In today’s Mebisode, Meb reads his latest paper, “When to Sell?” ----- Follow Meb on⁠ ⁠⁠X⁠,⁠ ⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠ and⁠ ⁠⁠YouTube⁠ For detailed show notes, click ⁠here⁠ To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our ⁠mailing list⁠ or visit us at⁠ ⁠⁠cambriainvestments.com⁠ ----- Follow The Idea Farm: ⁠X⁠ | ⁠LinkedIn⁠ | ⁠Instagram⁠ | ⁠TikTok⁠ ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include ⁠Ed Thorp⁠, ⁠Richard Thaler⁠, ⁠Jeremy Grantham⁠, ⁠Joel Greenblatt⁠, ⁠Campbell Harvey⁠, ⁠Ivy Zelman⁠, ⁠Kathryn Kaminski⁠, ⁠Jason Calacanis⁠, ⁠Whitney Baker,⁠ ⁠Aswath Damodaran⁠, ⁠Howard Marks⁠, ⁠Tom Barton⁠, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out ⁠here⁠!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠). ----- The information set forth herein is for informational purposes only a

Today’s guest is Carl Richards. Carl is a Certified Financial Planner, built and sold an investment firm, and hosts the podcast 50 Fires, which is backed by Chip and Joanna Gaines. He’s also the author of The Behavior Gap and The One-Page Financial Plan and his newest book is called Your Money: Reimaging Your Wealth with 101 Simple Sketches. In today’s episode, Carl discusses the emotional aspects of money and how our perceptions of wealth can be influenced by societal norms and personal experiences. He introduces concepts like the emotional balance sheet and the overnight test for investment decisions, emphasizing the need to align financial choices with personal goals rather than external pressures. The discussion also touches on the impact of news and social media on financial behavior. (0:00) Starts (1:15) Introduction of Carl Richards (5:32) Emotional aspects of money (12:19) The overnight test (20:26) Focusing on what you can control (24:36) Fundamental investing principles (28:11) Social compar

Today’s guest is Eddy Elfenbein, one of the OG financial bloggers at Crossing Wall Street. Eddy also runs the CWS ETF, which is from his annual buy list of 25 stocks. In today’s episode, Eddy shares his insights on investing, stock selection, and the challenges of managing an ETF. He discusses the origins of his buy list, his investment philosophy focused on high-quality stocks, and the importance of understanding market cycles. Eddie also provides advice for aspiring ETF managers and reflects on the unique stock picks that have defined his career. (0:00) Starts (3:22) Eddie's buy list concept and CWS ETF launch (9:55) Eddy's investment philosophy (19:36) Stock picking challenges and notable winners (22:45) Market misconceptions (28:38) Elfenbein's stock market theory (38:20) Eddy's most memorable investment (44:54) Market concerns and investment strategies ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our

Today’s guest is Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Funds and serves as portfolio manager of the firm’s deep value strategy. He’s just released a book called Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking. In today’s episode, Toby starts by discussing the current valuation landscape and the challenge for small cap investors. Then he explores the intersection of Warren Buffett’s investment philosophy with Sun Tzu’s teachings. He walks through notable investment case studies, including General Re, Burlington Northern and Japanese trading houses. The case studies all convey the significance of patience, strategic thinking, and the pursuit of asymmetric opportunities in investing, while also addressing the psychological aspects that influence investor behavior. (0:34) Introduction of Tobias Carlisle (1:32) Value investing in current market conditions (4:04) Market outlook and valuation differences across cap-sizes (10:03) Jay Powell's recent comments (13:57) Toby's new bo