Epsilon Theory Podcast

The inevitable result of financial innovation gone awry, which it ALWAYS does, is that it ALWAYS ends up empowering the State. When too clever by half people misplay the meta-game, that’s all the excuse the State needs to come swooping in and crush them, just as they are with Bitcoin today they did with Bear and Lehman in 2008. Installment #10 from Notes from the Field.

What if I told you that the dominant strategies for human investing are, without exception, algorithms and derivatives? I don't mean computer-driven investing, I mean good old-fashioned human investing ... stock-picking and the like. And what if I told you that these algorithms and derivatives might all be broken today? You might want to sit down for Part 9 of the Notes from the Field series.

We've all fallen victim to a bad retcon at some point in our lives. When the story we've been following takes a turn no one was prepared for and we have to act like it all makes perfect sense. It's Sherlock Holmes coming back from the dead. It's the reveal that an entire season of Dallas was only a dream. It's the author changing their mind and trying to convince you that it's all part of the plan. I don't buy it. And neither should you.

The pecking order is a social system designed to preserve economic inequality: inequality of food for chickens, inequality of wealth for humans. We are trained and told by Team Elite that the pecking order is not a real and brutal thing in the human species, but this is a lie. It is an intentional lie, formed by two powerful Narratives: trickle-down monetary policy and massive student debt financing. Part 8 of the Notes from the Field series.

Epsilon Theory on Tape: Clever Hans by Ben Hunt

In Part 6 of the Notes from the Field Series, Ben observes that we think we are wolves, living by the logic of the pack. In truth we are sheep, living by the logic of the flock.

In Part 4 of the Notes from the Field Series, Ben identifies how the natural lines of a tree and shaping the tree to follow those lines over time is a lot like shaping a portfolio.

We've all felt insecure about our looks at one point or another. Especially in our chronically online world where how you look can be your whole brand. So with plastic surgery rates on the rise, let's peel back the layers of this industry and see how information (and lies) about procedures spread and examine the real price of beauty.

Someone once said there's no such thing as bad publicity. With all due respect, this person is an idiot. Publicity, both good and bad, can have major ramifications. Even if you don't play a part in creating it.

Birkin bags are one of the ultimate symbols of status. But how did that happen? And are they worth the hype?

There’s a pose that very sick farm animals sometimes take when they’re near death, where they lie down and twist their head way back into their shoulder in a very unnatural way. It’s an odd sight if you don’t know what it signifies, a horrible sight if you do. Both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are starting to twist their heads back into their shoulders. I don’t know if it’s too late to save them or not, but I’m increasingly thinking that it is. We need to start thinking about the funeral, who’s going to speak, and what they’re going to say.

Move over Hollywood! Almonds are one of the most lucrative and fastest growing industries in California. Unfortunately they're not as good for us as you'd think.

The McDonalds Hot Coffee lawsuit is the archetypal example of nonsense litigation. But there's a lot more to the story than most people know.

It's the only question that really matters here in the Age of Nudge: why do we want what we want? A conversation with Luke Burgis, author of Wanting: The Power of Mimetic Desire in Everyday Life.

The Olympic games are known as a time of triumph and glory. The truth is that a lot more work goes into creating and maintaining that narrative than you'd expect.

The Boston Molassacre was one of the great tragedies of the early 20th century. So why isn't it treated like one?

I want to change the language of crypto from mining to growing, and I don't mean in a metaphorical sense. This is a method for the tokenization of symbolic betting markets in positive social goods.

Harvey Weinstein is a terrible person who did terrible things. But he doesn't get nearly enough credit, or more accurately blame, for his role in destroying the integrity of the Academy Awards and fundamentally altering how Hollywood makes movies.

The Fast and Furious movies are famous for intense action and ridiculous plots. But the truth about how these stories get made has more to do with the drama happening behind the camera than in front of it.

We write a LOT about work. And the responses we get are ... weird. Once again, the most important narratives are the ones we tell ourselves.