Morgans Financial Limited

Updated Outlook on the Federal Reserve and Australian Cash Rate In recent days, several people have asked for my updated view on the Federal Reserve and the Fed funds rate, as well as the outlook for the Australian cash rate. So I thought I’d walk through our model for the Fed funds rate and explain our approach to the RBA’s cash rate.

The benchmark US equity indices booked another round of fresh record intra-day and closing highs to open the week - Dow edged +66-points or +0.14% to 46,381.54. Apple Inc rallied +4.31% to be the leading performer in the 30-stock index following reports of strong demand for the iPhone 17 in its first weekend of sales, aided by consumers seeking to replace aging devices. The stock is closing in on a fresh record closing high (after touching their highest intra-day level since December 2024 overnight at US$256.64) and market capitalisation of US$4 trillion. ‘Magnificent Seven’ mega-capitalisation technology peer Nvidia Corp rallied +3.93% to a record closing high of US$183.61 after the company said it’s going to invest US$100B in OpenAI - the maker of ChatGPT - for the buildout of data centres based around the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) chips. The partnership "enables OpenAI to build and deploy at least 10 gigawatts of AI data centres with NVIDIA systems representing millions of GPUs [graphics proce

The three benchmark US equity indices advanced on Friday (19 September) to book fresh record intra-day and closing highs for a second consecutive session as the US and China advanced trade talks and the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks continued to climb - Dow rose +173-points or +0.37% to 46,315.27 Apple Inc +3.20% as the company’s new iPhone 17 models went on sale globally.

US equity indices logged fresh record closing highs, driven by fresh gains for the technology sector - Dow rose +124-points or +0.27% to 46,142.42, with Caterpillar Inc (up +3.62%) the leading performer in the 30-stock index and up over >7% in the past three trading sessions.

The US equity markets advanced - Dow gained +260-points or +0.57% to 46,018.32, touching a record intra-day high of 46,261.95. Amazon.com Inc (up +2.74%) and Caterpillar Inc (+2.27%) both gained over >2% to be the leading performers in the 30-stock index.

US equity markets settled with modest losses a day after both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record intra-day and closing highs as investors eye tomorrow morning’s AEST interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve - Dow fell -126-points or -0.27% UnitedHealth Group Inc (-2.33%) Nvuidoa Corp (-1.61%) and Travelers Companies Inc (-1.57%) all fell over >1.5%. Microsoft Corp (down -1.23%) vice chair and president Brad Smith wrote in a blog post overnight that the ‘Magnificent Seven’ mega capitalisation technology company would be making a $30B investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and ongoing operations across the United Kingdom through 2028.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record intra-day and closing highs ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest two-day monetary policy meeting kicking off that is expected to see the central bank cut benchmark interest rates for the first time this year - Dow edged +49-points or +0.11% higher, with so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’ mega-capitalisation technology names Amazon.com Inc (up +1.44%), Apple Inc (+1.12%) and Microsoft Corp (+1.07%) rising over >1% along with Caterpillar Inc (+1.02%) and International Business Machines (IBM) Corp (+1.10%). Merck & Co Inc (-1.20%) and McDonald's Corp (-1.09%) fell over >1% to be the worst performing Dow components overnight. Nvidia Corp dipped -0.04%, paring an earlier decline of almost -1.9% after China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) announced that following a preliminary investigation the chip giant was found to be in breach of antitrust rules in relation to its acquisition of Israel-based networking-technology group Mellanox. Separately, Nvidia is

Morgans AM - Monday, 15 September 2025 by Morgans Financial

US stocks rose on Thursday as traders anticipated that the latest reading of a key consumer inflation gauge won't stand in the way of the Federal Reserve lowering its benchmark interest rate next week.

US equity markets were mixed overnight - Dow fell 220 points or -0.48%, dragged down by tech heavyweights, Amazon and Apple, down -3.32% and -3.22% respectively.

Benchmark US equity indices booked fresh record highs - Dow gained +196-points or +0.43% to 45,711.34. UnitedHealth Group Inc (up +8.64%) was the leading component in the 30-stock index (and S&P 500) after the health insurer estimated that 78% of its Medicare Advantage membership will be in top-rated Medicare plans next year and are likely to qualify for bonus payments from the federal government. Microsoft Corp eked out a +0.04% gain following news it had inked a US$17.4B deal for Nvidia Corp (+1.46%)-backed Nebius Group NV (+49.42%) to provide artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure for the software giant's new data centre in New Jersey. Apple Inc 1.48% after unveiling the new iPhone 17 models at its ‘Awe Dropping’ event along with a number of updates that Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Tim Cook called the company's “biggest leap ever for iPhone." The company showcased four models including the iPhone 17 Air, Apple's most durable and thinnest phone ever. Apple also announced its next generation of Airpod

US equity markets advanced to open the new trading week, resuming a rally that has pushed benchmark indexes to a series of record highs in recent weeks - Dow rose +114-points or +0.25%, with International Business Machines (IBM) Corp (up +3.04%) the leading performer in the 30-stock index. Nvidia Corp (+0.77%) presented at the annual Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference overnight

U.S. equity markets settle with modest declines on Friday as investors digested a weaker than expected job report that bolstered the case for interest rate cuts, but also raised concerns about the health of the wider economy.

US equity markets advanced, with investors shrugging of weak private employment data and eyed the key non-farm payrolls report tonight AEST - Dow rose +350-points or +0.77%.

US equity markets mixed on the heels of steep falls to open September trading a day earlier - Dow dipped -25-points or -0.05%, with American Express Co (down -2.26%) and Chevron Corp (-2.33%) both falling over >2%.

US equity markets resumed trading following the Labour Day holiday long weekend and opened September in negative territory amid fresh uncertainty around tariffs - Dow down -249-points or -0.55% Nike Inc (down -3.48%) was the worst performer in the 30-stock index, while Nvidia Corp (-1.95%) led losses among the so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’ cohort of mega-capitalisation technology stocks.

US equity and bond markets were CLOSED overnight for the Labor Day holiday. On the trade front, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Sunday (31 August) the Trump administration is continuing its talks with trading partners despite a U.S. appeals court ruling that most of government’s tariffs are illegal.

US equity markets declined on Friday (29 August), with declines for artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks weighing particularly heavily on the benchmark indices as investors also parsed the latest inflation figures - Dow eased -92-points or +0.20% after booking Caterpillar Inc (down -3.65%) was the worst performer in the 30-stock index a day after the maker of big farm and construction equipment warned tariffs would negatively impact its full year result by a greater amount (US$1.5B to US$1.8B) than previously forecast earlier this month when releasing its second quarter result (US$1.3B to US$1.5B). Nvidia Corp fell -3.32%, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that Alibaba Group Holdings has developed a new chip that it’s now testing and that could be a domestic replacement for Nvidia’s H20. Unlike a previous AI processor that relied on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. for fabrication, Alibaba’s new chip is being manufactured directly in China, according to the report. The U.S. government has

US equity markets recorded modest gains, with the S&P 500 climbing above 6,500 for the first time as investors digested Nvidia Corp’s (down -0.79%) second quarter result after the closing bell of the previous session, stronger-than-expected economic growth figures and eyed inflation figures tonight AEST - Dow added +72-points or +0.16%, with American Express Co (up +1.40%), Cisco Systems Inc (+1.45%) and Salesforce Inc (1.75%) all rising over >1%.

Morgans AM - Thursday, 28 August 2025 by Morgans Financial