Fixed Interests

Shelly Shetty, Co-head of Sovereigns—Americas, and Richard Francis, Primary Fitch Analyst for Colombia, discuss the fiscal and growth challenges for Colombia and how the new government is trying to tackle those issues.​

Tony Stringer Managing Director, Global Sovereigns and Erich Arispe, Director, Fitch Ratings, discuss the Positive Outlook for Russia which reflects continued progress in strengthening the economic policy framework underpinned by a more flexible exchange rate, a strong commitment to inflation-targeting and a prudent fiscal strategy. This policy mix has increased the economy's resilience to shocks and helped preserve macroeconomic and financial stability despite the heightened sanctions' risk

Public finances in several developed markets look exposed when the next recession eventually strikes, with potential negative consequences for some sovereign ratings.

Persistently high fiscal deficits leading to rising debt burden and high government financing needs has led Fitch to downgrade Costa Rica. Charles Seville, Head of North America Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Director, Sovereigns, discuss Costa Rica in more detail, exploring the reasons behind the downgrade and how this negative outlook may be resolved.

Tune into our latest Fixed Interest podcast with Brian Coulton, Chief Economist and Tony Stringer, COO, Global Sovereigns Group, who discuss what's in store for the global economy in 2019. For more content providing in-depth insight into credit in 2019, including reports, videos and webinars visit our dedicated Credit Outlook page https://your.fitchratings.com/outlooks-2019.html

Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).

Tune into the latest Fixed Interests and listen to James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereigns, and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss how global growth prospects remain robust despite rising trade tensions and political risks. Accelerating private investment, tightening labor markets, pro-cyclical US fiscal easing and accommodative monetary policy are all supporting above-trend growth in advanced economies. While China’s growth rate is holding up better than expected so far in the face of slowing credit growth; Russia and Brazil continue to recover slowly.

Political risk is a key determinant of sovereign creditworthiness, Ed Parker, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings and James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereign Ratings, say. They highlight that political and governance issues were the driving or supporting factors in a cumulative 47% of sovereign downgrades, rating crises, or defaults from 1997 to present. They point to current political events that may negatively affect ratings such as: • Activity in the Korean Peninsula • The Gulf and wider Middle Eastern tensions • US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal • Global oil prices

Tune into the latest Fixed Interests and listen to James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereigns & Supranational Group, Fitch Ratings and Andrew Fennell, Director, Sovereigns, Fitch Ratings, discuss Fitch’s recent affirmation of China’s ‘A+’ rating. James and Andrew explore current policy settings, the growth outlook, and provide insights into the deleveraging story whilst giving Fitch’s view on whether household debt will become a credit issue.

The global economy is experiencing boom-like growth conditions and central banks are becoming less cautious as inflation risks rise, according to Fitch's latest "Global Economic Outlook" (GEO). The US, eurozone and China are all likely to grow well above trend in 2018 and global economic growth is set to remain above 3% for three consecutive years until 2019, a performance not achieved since the mid 2000s.

The Eurozone Capital Expenditure (Capex) recovery had initially been a disappointment in the aftermath of the Eurozone crisis, lagging consumption and wider GDP. But the capex outlook is now looking a lot brighter and has been a key factor behind Fitch’s recent upgrades to its Eurozone GDP forecasts.

On the latest Fixed Interests, senior members of Fitch’s Economics and Sovereign teams discuss potential growth rates of the largest emerging markets. Analysis highlights the importance of demographic factors and investment rates, placing India ahead of China over the next 5 years with projected GDP growth of 6.7% versus 5.5%.

Monica Insoll, Head of Credit Market Research and Joseph Cass, Director, Investor Development, provide a 10 minute high-level overview of Fitch Ratings’ Global Credit Outlook report which covers all rated sectors and regions. They identify the main macro issues that will drive credit trends over the next 12 to 24 months, focusing on what factors are most likely to drive rating changes in 2018.

Global growth momentum remains strong and is likely to be sustained by an increasingly positive outlook for investment, says Fitch Ratings in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO).

Analytical Chief Operating Officer Tony Stringer and Managing Director Ed Parker discuss, in our latest Fixed Interests Podcast, the lessons for countries experiencing multiple downgrades or post-crisis upswings.

"Our forecasts imply something of a 'sweet spot' for the global economy in 2017 and 2018 with above-trend growth and still highly accommodative global monetary policies. However, this is not a pattern we expect to persist into 2019 and beyond as output gaps close in advanced economies and monetary policy support is withdrawn," said Brian Coulton, Fitch's Chief Economist.

Monica Insoll, Fitch Ratings' Head of Credit Market Research and Joseph Cass, Director, Business and Relationship Management, discuss the themes of Fitch Ratings' latest report: The Credit Outlook 3Q17 (QE and World Growth Buoy Global Rating Outlooks).

In our latest Global Economic Outlook James McCormack, Fitch Ratings Global Head of Sovereign Ratings and Brian Coulton, Fitch Chief Economist, discuss growth revisions in 2017 which are, for the most part, positive. There were 12 upgrades to growth forecasts of the 20 countries examined.

Monica Insoll, Fitch Ratings Head of Credit Market Research, talks with Michael Larsson, Director of Credit Market Research, about how European credit markets are being impacted by the improving economy, political risk, and ECB QE programmes.

James McCormack, Fitch Ratings Global Head of Sovereigns, and Brian Coulton, Fitch Chief Economist, discuss US monetary policy and the implications of the Fed's recent rate hike.