Top Traders Unplugged With Niels Kaastrup-larsen | Engaging Conversations With The Top Traders & Investors

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns. In this episode, we discuss: How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returns Compounding wealth as a systematic investor How Trend Following can profit during good times and bad times Data distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus on How investment terms can often create communication barriers Embracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastrupla

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player. You can find Mark’s latest writings https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com (here). In this episode, we discuss: How people appeal more to investors than trading systems alone How to spot future star performers in advance Unconventional approaches to market correlations The importance of communicati

Today we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry’s approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry’s bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber attacks, and why past correlations can’t always be relied upon. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). In this episode, we discuss: The case for longer-term strategies Not over-optimising strategies to adapt to every market condition How adding Trend Following to a portfolio increase

Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates. In this episode, we discuss: Why diversifying among systems can be beneficial Why buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitable Classical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methods Some good measures for monitoring risk Some tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investing Suitable backtesting software for retail investors How to approach negative interest rates with your broker Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://ww

This week, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing’ a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers’, what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop’ to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creating a backtest, and whether some level of curve-fitting may actually be required for a good backtest. In this episode, we discuss: Which strategies would complement portfolio with 80% already allocated to Trend Following Why 'forward-testing' a system can be quite important before going live The art of finding and latching onto outlier performers Leverage, margin, & total portfoli

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity’ when discussing Trend Following models. In this episode, we discuss: The increasing global risks that could cause large market selloffs How a Trend Following trader thinks about 'outliers' The role of currency pairs in a Trend Following system Diversification versus 'Di-worse-ification' Whether to use different timeframes for different asset classes Thoughts on 'pyramiding' in and out of positions Rich's explanation of the term 'non-linearity squared' Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https

Mark Rzepczynski joins us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, the different types of liquidity, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power since the Bretton Woods agreement has made passive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to integrate ESG investing with Trend Following. In this episode, we discuss: Some famous quotes which apply to investing, such as Donald Rumsfeld's quote about the types of risks to be aware of How macro data can contribute to a profitable trading system The true definitions of liquidity Futures markets as the most liquid in the world Why a rules-based app

Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum’s recent rise after a new ‘hard fork’, auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into account human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). In this episode, we discuss: The recent comeback in crypto markets and trading crypto futures Thoughts on autocorrelation The benefits of trading a wide range of markets How over-optimisation can result in underperformance Why ESG investing should consider human rights issues as well as

Today we’re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system. In this episode, we discuss: How effective Backtests can be Apply Trend Following models to synthetic markets Ethereum futures Why 'dirty fuel' markets should still be traded Combining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategy Distinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust system How to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https:/

This week, Richard Brennan from ATS Trading Solutions makes his debut on the show, and we discuss the complexity behind successful Trend Following strategies, momentum trading versus Trend Following, the importance of average win rate, how a weak edge can still lead to strong returns, deflationary environments and their past effects on the Trend Following models, which markets, and how many, to include in a profitable trading system, and how to find the perfect exit strategy with minimum risk. In this episode, we discuss: Why there may be no such thing as a 'simple' successful Trend Following strategy How to profit across multiple timeframes How momentum investing is often confused with Trend Following methods Average win rate versus average loss rate Why inflation is usually a good thing for systematic investors Trailing stops and risk management How many markets are ideal for a profitable Trend Following system Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/ni

Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems.  We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important. You can find Mark’s latest writings here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://my.captivate.fm/@RJParkerJr09 (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly. In this episode, we discuss: The benefits of simplifying your trading approach as much as possible Optimal exits from hugely profitable trades How to engage in related to your investment approach Over complicating a trading strategy Acceptable margin amounts Spread-trading using a Trend Following strategy Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.ca

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results of an experiment where retail investors traded the same stocks as a professional fund, leading to different outcomes. You can read some of Rob’s work https://qoppac.blogspot.com/ (here). In this episode, we discuss: Trend Following as a solution to rising inflation The major stock indices being of composed of mainly companies are losing money Trend Following on ETFs Predicting future returns using current risk exposure Retail traders versus professional money managers Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraders

Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D’s’ of inflation. In this episode, we discuss: Commodity prices falling, even after recent inflation fears How price action incorporates all narratives Trend Following on options The extra costs of short-term trading Single stocks versus index futures If Technical Analysis forms part of a typical Trend Following system Mark's '3 D's' of inflation You can find Mark’s latest writings https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/ (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/to

Jerry Parker joins us on the show today to discuss why CTAs could be mistaken in excluding single stocks from their strategies, the possible benefits of having exposure to multiple trading systems, why price action is more important than predictions derived from fundamentals, recommended books for learning about Trend Following, the differences between paper-trading and disciplined execution of real trades, comparing Bitcoin futures to commodity futures, and the extent of simplicity a good trading system should have. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://my.captivate.fm/@RJParkerJr09 (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric’s last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn’t always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we’re wired to do, how managed futures can help investor’s portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changing the narrative around Trend Following. In this episode, we discuss: The misconceptions around the safety & profitability of a typical 60/40 portfolio The recent Federal Reserve decision to tighten fiscal policy Eric's last appearance on the show, which was at the exact bottom of the 2020 market crash The varying speeds of Trend Following Why low-volatility returns may not mean that a strategy is

'The typical pie-chart of diversification ends up being all long-GDP assets, which means these are going to do well in a risk-on environment, when we’re awash with liquidity. The problem is, when we see a sell off or a liquidity event like March 2020, we see the correlations of an ‘uncorrelated’ pie chart go to 1, which means that they all sell off at the same time.' - Jason BuckWhat happens when an unexpected major event occurs and all of your supposedly diversified investments suddenly become correlated, before heading sharply to the downside?  Jason Buck and his partner at Mutiny Fund have been thinking about this question for a long-time, and have created a portfolio designed to protect against these ‘Black Swan’, high-volatility events.  You may have seen Jason Buck alongside another volatility-expert (and previous guest of Top Traders Unplugged) Chris Cole on Real Vision, or listened to his ‘Pirates of Finance’ podcast with co-host Corey Hoffstein (another previous guest of Top

Rob Carver is on the show with us today to discuss why Elon Musk & the Chinese government might be proving that Bitcoin may not be as decentralised as first assumed, whether you should adjust your system according to the instrument being traded, some processes for reinvesting profits into your portfolio over time, thoughts on position sizing, different ways of defending against inflation, if short-term Trend Following may actually be as good as long-term Trend Following, and the sweet spot for number of different futures contracts a good system should trade. In this episode, we discuss: If Bitcoin is really as decentralised as it's reputed to be Adjusting your system on an individual trade basis What to do with your trading profits Defending against inflation Short-term Trend Following versus long-term Trend Following Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the htt

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss China’s move to ban Bitcoin trading, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of research into a new central bank digital currency, some of the issues around inflation and how it might affect trading, the psychology of drawdowns and the time in between new highs, how inflation can distort price signals, the recent rise of the ‘Misery Index’, Michael Burry’s huge bet against Tesla, the importance of exits in Trend Following strategies, and matching the right ‘Operation Tempo’ for your trading personality. In this episode, we discuss: China's recent banning of Bitcoin trading and mining The Federal Reserve's announcement of a possible new digital currency Inflation and its effects on trading The psychology around drawdowns Price signals and how they can be distorted by inflation Matching what Mark terms as 'Operation Tempo' with your personality Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://w