Off The Record With Paul Hodes

US political campaigns are expected to spent $17 billion on ads in 2024. But there's little evidence about how much of it works, if any does at all. John Halpin, Executive Editor of The Liberal Patriot, explains what we know and what we don't know about political advertising, and why the best solution for winning campaigns in 2024 might be a back-to-the-future approach. ***Don't forget to rate and review us!!*** ***Check out another great podcast at ⁠⁠Talkin' Politics & Religion Without Killin' Each Other⁠ *** 00:31 The Question of Political Ad Effectiveness 03:24 The Trust Gap in Political Advertising 05:09 The Influence of Political Ads: A Data Perspective 08:18 The Impact of Negative Political Ads 10:18 The Role of Money in Political Campaigns 17:10 The Need for a Rethink in Political Campaign Strategies 26:52 The Power of Person-to-Person Contact in Politics 30:18 Conclusion: The Future of Political Advertising

ProPublica's star investigative reporter Andy Kroll takes us behind the scenes, inside the issues and internal debates within the Supreme Court as it hears the 14th Amendment case against former President Donald Trump. ***Don't forget to rate and review us!!*** ***Check out another great podcast at ⁠⁠Talkin' Politics & Religion Without Killin' Each Other⁠ *** 01:17 Case Overview: Donald J. Trump vs Norma Anderson 05:54 The Debate on the 14th Amendment 11:40 The Tension Between Strict Constructionism and Legal Interpretation 20:19 The Three Core Questions for the Court 25:28 Understanding the Concept of Insurrection 26:55 The Role of States in Enforcing the 14th Amendment 36:13 The Role of the Supreme Court in Political Decisions 41:38 The Potential for Future Political Crises 46:42 The Importance of a Functional Congress

A Bad Day for Democrats, the 14th Amendment, and Questions about Joe Biden's Fitness for Office. A special Sunday bonus roundtable discussion with Matt, Paul, and Alicia on how the Supreme Court is crushing Democrats dreams of getting saved from Trump, while the Special Counsel crushed Biden's age and memory in a way that could have lasting echoes throughout the Presidential race. ***Don't forget to rate and review us!!*** ***Check out another great podcast at ⁠⁠⁠Talkin' Politics & Religion Without Killin' Each Other⁠⁠ *** 00:40 The Impact of Special Counsel's Investigation on Joe Biden 09:15 The Political Impact of the Special Counsel's Report 14:42 The Age Factor in Politics: Biden vs Trump 18:19 The Supreme Court and the 14th Amendment 22:16 The Immunity Question: Trump's Legal Challenges 24:30 The House of Representatives: A Study in Dysfunction 30:14 The Swift Bowl

Two cases in the federal courts this week had very different outcomes for Donald Trump. A Federal Appeals Court demolished Trump's claims of immunity from prosecution, but the US Supreme Court seemed poised to allow him to remain on the ballot despite a constitutional challenge over his role in the Insurrection. Matt Robison joins radio legend Howard Monroe to break it down. ***Don't forget to rate and review us!!*** ***Check out another great podcast at ⁠⁠Talkin' Politics & Religion Without Killin' Each Other⁠ *** 02:51 Discussion on Court Rulings and Presidential Immunity 08:37 Conversation on the 14th Amendment Case 18:12 Discussion on the Biden Special Prosecutor's Report

Top forecaster Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics and the host of 'Inside Economics' has released his election forecast model. We dive into the factors that will truly matter in 2024, and announce the predicted winner. ***Don't forget to rate and review us!!*** ***Check out another great podcast at ⁠Talkin' Politics & Religion Without Killin' Each Other *** 02:49 The Impact of the Economy on Voter Behavior 04:40 The Influence of Voter Turnout 07:00 The Significance of Election Forecast Models 09:42 The Role of Third-Party Candidates in Elections 19:43 The Impact of Economic Factors on Elections 23:35 Predicting the Next President

Corey Nathan of the hit podcast Talkin' Politics & Religion Without Killin' Each Other joins Matt Robison for Part Two of their conversation about whether the divides in America are really that big for the vast majority of people, and how to connect with people who seem to have major differences with you. If you haven't heard Part One yet, click on the link for Corey's pod and check it out (and then come right back here)! And PLEASE hit follow on both of our shows, and if you're on the Apple Podcast app especially, scroll to the bottom of the episode list and leave us a rating and review! 05:04 The Journey from Judaism to Christianity 07:42 The Importance of Engaging in Political Discussions 10:36 The Role of Religion in Politics 18:07 The Dangers of Avoiding Political Discussions 21:16 The Exit Ramp for Trump Supporters 23:48 Understanding Deplorability and Open-Mindedness 30:31 The Power of Listening and Understanding 37:40 The Threat of Authoritarianism to Democracy 40:44 The Valu

2024 may be the most pivotal year in decades, one that could shape the world's future in profound ways. Xenia Wickett, a geopolitical expert who has worked at the White House, State Department, Chatham House, and the Harvard Kennedy School explains what the big drivers of instability and change are, and suggests how to think about the complicated cross currents in the world in 2024. 02:57 The Key Challenges in 2024 06:02 The Pillars of Global Structure 16:11 The New Role of Corporations Across Societies 20:19 The Four Global Systems 22:49 The Interplay of Global Systems and Foundational Pillars 28:40 The 'Rooms' - Localized Issues Impacting the Global System 31:07 Understanding the Interconnectedness of Global Events 38:48 Learning to Manage Volatility

Smart insights on the future of streaming and entertainment with Chris Hill, the former host of Motley Fool Money. Now that Netflix seems to have come out on top int he streaming wars, what does the mix of emerging company strategies mean for various forms of media that Americans watch, including television, movies, and sports.

Also, what does Donald Trump's move to kill an immigration deal tell us about shifting power centers in America? And, what will the latest developments in the Middle East and changes in voter perceptions of the economy do to the political landscape in 2024? 00:09 Taylor Swift and the Political Landscape 02:55 The Politics of Jealousy 08:27 The Impeachment of Alejandro Mayorkas 13:32 The Border Issue and Political Power 18:32 The Power Shift in the Republican Party 25:57 The Current State of the Middle East 32:26 The Impact of the Economy on Politics

Renowned Constitutional scholar and law professor Kim Wehle explains how an unheralded Supreme Court case could eliminate the core of the election subversion case against Donald Trump, and give him many more paths to delay and escape justice. 03:04 Discussion on Kim's New Book on Pardon Power 07:10 How Fisher vs United States Could Upend the Trump Trial 15:26 Critique of the Supreme Court's Approach to Precedent 21:47 Unpacking the Legal Implications for Donald Trump 30:56 The Role of Regulatory Agencies and the Supreme Court 37:50 The Threat of State Secession

A special late-night discussion on the results of the New Hampshire primary. Donald Trump won, but showed continued vulnerability which seemed to send him into a meltdown. Should Trump be encouraged or nervous after this supposedly big win? 00:32 Analyzing Trump's Victory and Haley's Performance 04:16 The Future of the Republican Party 06:57 The Democratic Side of the Race 11:39 The Impact of Trump's Misogyny 26:04 The Future of the New Hampshire Primary

On New Hampshire Primary day, an in-person discussion with Chris Matthews, best known for his political analysis on the show Hardball. He shares his experiences with House Speaker Tip O'Neill and shares inside stories about politics and lessons from a lifetime rubbing shoulders with some of the best-known politicians in America. 00:58 The Impact of Hardball: The Book and The Show 01:44 Analyzing the Political Landscape and Key Players 04:24 The Impact of Personal Presence in Politics 08:03 The Role of Media in Politics 12:08 The Role of Journalists in Holding Politicians Accountable 19:43 The Importance of Responding to Political Attacks 22:19 The Challenge of Dealing with Trump 24:02 Kamala Harris: Biden's Biggest Problem? 26:42 The Challenges and Rewards of a Political Career 35:04 The Changing Political Landscape 37:23 The Importance of Personal Relationships in Politics

New CNN polling from Andy Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, is out with new figures and for those hoping to stop Trump, things are not looking good. What happened, why, and what do the coming months look like? 01:03 Interview with Andy Smith, Director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center 02:32 The Influence of Trump on New Hampshire Politics 03:36 The Rise and Fall of Ron DeSantis 04:25 The Impact of Indictments on Trump's Support 09:42 The Role of Nikki Haley in the Republican Primary 12:37 Understanding Voting Behavior in New Hampshire 20:01 The Impact of Immigration on Trump's Support 28:07 The Strategy and Challenges of Haley's Campaign 29:58 The Influence of Media on Election Results 36:54 The Future of the Republican Party 39:47 Memorable Moments from Past Primaries 44:43 The Paradigm Shift in the Polling Industry

Matt Robison and Paul Hodes join renowned radio host Matt McNeil to talk about how the media narrative is spinning Trump's results into political capita, the challenges facing Biden, and the curious political campaign of Dean Phillips. 00:42 Critique of Media's Role in Politics 02:25 Analysis of Trump's Performance in Iowa 03:12 Media's Misrepresentation of Trump's Success 06:29 Impact of Media Narrative on New Hampshire Polls 09:28 Understanding New Hampshire's Political Landscape 16:28 Discussion on Dean Phillips' Campaign 20:34 Analysis of Write-in Campaign for Biden

What's it like behind the scenes in the New Hampshire Primary, and what should people watch for in the coming days. Matt Robison and Paul Hodes join Howard Monroe to take us inside a fast-moving an unpredictable race. 00:43 Media's Role in Shaping Perceptions 03:46 Understanding New Hampshire Primary 04:32 The Role of Independent Voters in New Hampshire 08:08 The Unusual Year for New Hampshire 09:21 The Impact of Media on Election Results 15:45 The Potential Impact of Undeclared Voters 22:48 The Future of American Politics

How the media's lazy, glib reporting managed to distort the story of Trump's win in Iowa, and why that could have disastrous consequences for this election and America's future. See Matt's companion op-ed in Newsweek. ***Please take a moment to leave us a 5-star rating and a review on Apple podcasts*** 02:18 The Media's Misrepresentation of Trump's Victory 09:37 The Impact of Iowa Results on New Hampshire 11:18 The Role of Media in Shaping Election Narratives 22:16 The Importance of the New Hampshire Primary 27:55 The Impact of Iowa Results on Democratic Primary

Matt Robison welcomes back Dan Perry, a former lead AP editor for the Middle East. They discuss the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and a big step that might signal some light at the end of the tunnel. 01:49 Discussion on Genocide Charges Against Israel 03:38 Potential Ceasefire Proposal from Qatar 13:00 Netanyahu's Role in the Conflict 23:45 Potential Outcomes of Genocide Charges 28:42 Pathway to Peace

Matt Robison and Jason Sattler (aka @LOLGOP), a former USA Today columnist, describe how the insane (and hilarious!) MAGA implosion in Michigan is a window into the real political problem that we all face as a country in 2024. 01:14 The Michigan MAGA Meltdown: Christina Caramo's Saga 03:24 Caramo's Controversial Statements: A Tournament of Absurdity 10:08 The Bigger Picture: Michigan as a Microcosm 16:20 The Muslim Community's Political Influence in Michigan 21:25 Analyzing Biden's Stance on Israel and Its Political Implications 24:55 The Role of Recency Bias in Voter Perception 27:57 The Role of the Economy in Voter Perception 30:07 The Flaws of Binary Choices in Political Polling 41:04 The Integrity Test for Republicans

***PLEASE take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple podcast app!*** Donald Trump's lawyers just argued that he could assassinate a political opponent and get away with it (that he could only be prosecuted if impeached and convicted in the Senate). Will federal jusdes agree? Also, should Meet the Press anchor Kristen Welker be fired? And are we seeing the craziest Republican ever? 00:00 Introduction and Trump's Lawyer's Argument 02:12 Historical Context and Legal Analysis 04:51 Trump's Media Strategy and Public Perception 11:01 Media's Role and Accountability 15:36 Debate on Media Boycott and Journalistic Standards 20:28 Impact of Media Narratives on Public Opinion 26:27 Shocking Endorsements 27:30 Discussion on Controversial Republican Figures 34:04 Analysis of Recent Polls and Political Momentum

A deep conversation about presidential impeachment -- one of the most important drivers in American politics today -- with Michael J. Gerhardt, a distinguished constitutional law scholar and has been part of several impeachment proceedings. He is the author of The Law of Presidential Impeachment: A Guide for the Engaged Citizen. 00:16 The History and Evolution of Presidential Impeachment 01:57 Understanding the Framers' Vision of Impeachment 04:20 Early Experiments with Presidential Impeachment 07:12 The Role of Impeachment in Holding Presidents Accountable 12:07 The Nature of Impeachment: Political vs Legal Proceedings 13:36 The Impact of Partisanship on Impeachment 18:22 The Nixon and Clinton Impeachment Processes 22:39 The Trump Impeachment Trials: An Insider's Perspective 28:30 The Biden Impeachment Inquiry: An Unprecedented Situation 31:02 The Future of Presidential Impeachment