Cognitive Engineering

A beginning is a very delicate time. The transition from one set of leaders to another can be fraught with difficulty. Talking before the US Capitol riots brought this so sharply into focus, we discuss what makes for a smooth handover of power. In this podcast we discuss the factors that lead to turbulent power transitions and whether we can predict how they will go. We examine historical precedents from monarchical successions, enforced regime changes and democratic handovers, and question whether leaders are more or less vulnerable just after they have ascended to the throne. This podcast was recorded prior to the unruly invasion of the US Capitol Building - how accurate were our predictions regarding whether Donald Trump would attend Joe Biden's inauguration? A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - List of UK Prime Ministers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom - List of Italian Prime Ministers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Italy -

If you like wasting your time on pointless activities, join us as we talk to Chris Lear from the Magpie Crossword Magazine and discuss why humans enjoy puzzles. In this podcast, we explore the weird and wonderful world of the cryptic crossword community. We also try to solve the puzzle of why we willingly devote time and energy to tasks which are deliberately designed to be difficult and have no obvious benefits. Finally, you can try your hand at answering one of our guest’s fiendish clues. Answers on a postcard to Aleph Insights. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - Magpie Crossword Magazine: https://www.piemag.com/ - Categories of insight: https://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10289/3857/Categories%20of%20insight.pdf;jsessionid=EC7EB351382427E244C7566AC18448C3?sequence=1 - Need for Cognition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Need_for_cognition - Need for Cognition and the Big 5: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00223989709603517#:~:text=Significant%20positive%20direct%20r

We discuss whether rivalries spur us on to ever greater achievements or distract us with unnecessary competition. Is a nemesis necessary in order to define our success, or do they simply lure us to the edge of the Reichenbach Falls? Join us as we plunge headlong into the debate. In this podcast we examine the impact of national and ideological rivalries, attempting to determine whether fierce competition with an outside agency makes societies more or less productive. We look at historical case studies such as the Cold War, but also investigate the influence of personal rivalries on individual achievements, asking whether bearing a grudge really makes a difference. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - Gallup’s favourability ratings https://news.gallup.com/poll/1624/perceptions-foreign-countries.aspx - ‘Rivalries can improve individual athletic performance’ https://psychcentral.com/news/2014/07/04/rivalries-improve-individual-athletic-performance/72073.html#:~:text=New%20research%20looks%20at%20the,i

What’s it like to celebrate Christmas in the southern hemisphere? Are there things about Christmas that don’t make sense in summer? Things mentioned in this podcast: - Was Jesus born on 25 December? https://www.jw.org/en/bible-teachings/questions/when-was-jesus-born/ - Average monthly temperature of cities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_average_temperature - Things to do in Wichita at Christmas https://www.google.com/search?q=wichita+christmas+events&oq=wichita+christmas&aqs=chrome.0.0j69i57j0l4.2239j1j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&ibp=htl;events&rciv=evn&sxsrf=ACYBGNQUDj2uHQUMZqneSzGli7vHGsO5jw:1574686584061#htivrt=events&htidocid=F7M37PunUtLJvVeVJpA8-A%3D%3D&fpstate=tldetail For more Cognitive Engineering episodes find us on iTunes, Google Play or wherever you get your podcasts, or add this RSS feed to your preferred player https://link.chtbl.com/SQeIgc44

Passwords have become an integral part of our everyday lives, keeping our money, our data and our secrets safe. But what makes a good one, or a bad one for that matter? Click, friend, and enter. In this podcast we look at how hackers exploit passwords and analyse the common themes that make them easy to hack. We also consider whether having password restrictions (e.g. mandating password length or character requirements) may actually be doing more harm than good. Finally, we explore how passwords and security might evolve in the future as authentication technologies advance. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: World’s worst passwords https://www.tomsguide.com/uk/news/worst-passwords-2020 8 6 reasons biometrics are bad authenticators https://www.csoonline.com/article/3330695/6-reasons-biometrics-are-bad-authenticators-and-1-acceptable-use.html Have I been pwned? https://haveibeenpwned.com/ Breached websites: https://haveibeenpwned.com/PwnedWebsites Why 2FA SMS is a bad idea https://blog.sucuri.net/2

In response to a world threatened by automation, we seem to be flocking to artisanal products. But how much human skill is actually involved in their making, and do we really care? Sit back and listen to our sustainable, homemade podcast on the topic. In this podcast we look at the rise in sales of artisanal products and explore the extent to which they are true to the meaning of the term. We also investigate the use of other buzzwords in marketing and attempt to understand what they indicate about consumer decision-making, generational divides and our perceptions of quality. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - The artisanal tone of voice in marketing https://econsultancy.com/the-rise-of-the-artisanal-tone-of-voice-among-brand-marketers/ - Has ‘artisan’ become meaningless? https://ideas.time.com/2012/05/02/the-artisan-hoax-has-that-word-become-meaningless/ - ‘Premium mediocre’ https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2017/08/17/the-premium-mediocre-life-of-maya-millennial/ - Tesco’s fictional farms https://ww

We review our predictions about the US Presidential Election with the benefit of hindsight, and discover how it is that Fraser can now afford a double bass. This podcast comprises two elements. The first part is our pre-election forecasts made back in September. The second part is a discussion of those forecasts after the results were known, exploring our original beliefs at the time and how our perception of them changed once we knew the outcome. We discuss the psychology of predictions and Fraser explains how he put his money where his mouth wasn’t. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - Brier Score https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score - Murphy Decomposition https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/bitstream/handle/10871/34847/revision2.pdf;jsessionid=207EB7DA71FFAF769EE2424CCC0C074C?sequence=1 Find more Cognitive Engineering episodes here http://podcast.alephinsights.com and for more information on Aleph Insights visit our website https://alephinsights.com Image: Ted Eytan via Flickr

Time is defined by its measurement, and yet our system for counting something so fundamental has been allowed to develop haphazardly over the ages. We consider whether it’s time for a change. In this podcast we discuss how our system for time-keeping evolved through history, what additional problems are generated by measuring time, and whether our current system is fit for purpose. We also consider whether there are any alternative systems that might do a better job. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - History of our current timekeeping system https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/experts-time-division-days-hours-minutes/ - How Europeans spend their time https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3930297/5953614/KS-58-04-998-EN.PDF/c789a2ce-ed5b-4a0c-bcbf-693e699db7d7?version=1.0 - Nystrom’s ‘Tonal System’ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tonal_system#:~:text=The%20tonal%20system%20is%20a,in%201859%20by%20John%20W.&text=Nystrom%20advocated%20his%20system%20thus,system%20of%20arithmetic%20and%20met

Which is better, urban splendour or bucolic majesty? Our guest this week, Mikey Lear, provides a passionate defence of country living in the face of sniping from our very own metropolitan elite. This podcast looks at the data relating to a range of outcomes for urban versus rural populations, considers why people move to the city and tries to methodically measure the relative benefits. It also examines the different characteristics of those living in both environments. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - Tony Champion on commuting patterns https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02697450902827329 - Rural v urban health https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/834244/Health_September_2019.pdf - Rural v urban economy https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/rural-economic-activity - Are cities good or bad for the environment? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49639003 - Are cities back? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44482291

Ever wondered how we measure the amount of terrorism? We talk to Jerry Smith from CHC Global, who explains how the Global Terrorism Database has been keeping track of terrorist events all around the world for 50 years. This podcast covers the painstaking process of collecting structured information about terrorism and considers how you standardise the measurement of something so chaotic and destructive. It explores how the Global Terrorism Database goes about collecting information, categorising events and maintaining data quality to create one of our favourite datasets. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - The Global Terrorism Database https://www.start.umd.edu/data-tools/global-terrorism-database-gtd - CHC Global https://www.chcglobal.co.uk/ - Analysis of terrorist event frequency https://www.jstor.org/stable/27638538?seq=1 Find more Cognitive Engineering episodes here http://podcast.alephinsights.com/ and for more information on Aleph Insights visit our website https://alephinsights.com/ Ima

As the US is in the throes of a presidential election, we examine why the US electoral system seems so strange and complicated. In this podcast we discuss the origins of the US electoral system, why it seems foreign and the rationale underpinning its complexities. We delve into the difficulties of changing such a system and consider what an idealised electoral system would look like. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - Effect of the electoral college on narrow elections https://www.nber.org/papers/w27993#fromrss - US election outcomes and the popular vote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin - Electoral college history https://history.house.gov/Institution/Electoral-College/Electoral-College/#:~:text=Originally%2C%20the%20Electoral%20College%20provided,the%20President%20and%20congressional%20selection.&text=The%2012th%20Amendment%E2%80%94ratified%20in,the%20President%20and%20Vice%20President. - Vox on why people vote https://www.vox.co

Can behaving irrationally ever be a rational thing to do? This week we are re-releasing a podcast based on the works of the late Derek Parfit, a philosopher who specialised in personal identity, rationality, and ethics, and who had just passed away when we recorded the episode in 2017. We focus on dynamic decision problems, specifically how we make or should make decisions that will have an impact over time or have future consequences. In what situations should we take a rational or irrational approach when it comes to decision making and can we ever be truly irrational? A few things we mentioned in this podcast: Derek Parfit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Parfit Dynamic Decision Problems https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/dynamic-choice/ Richard Dawkins https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-016-0910-7 The Prisoner’s Dilemma https://www.britannica.com/science/game-theory/The-prisoners-dilemma Find more Cognitive Engineering episodes here http://podcast.alephinsights.com/ and

Many decisions are binary: should we wear a face mask or not? We discuss how this might affect our thinking more broadly and whether it drives polarisation. This podcast investigates binary thinking, looking at why and in what situations we have a tendency to think in absolute terms. We debate the advantages and pitfalls associated with binary thinking, and consider whether some of us are better at handling ambiguity and uncertainty than others. Finally, we discuss ways of managing our own and others’ binary thinking. Does that sound interesting - yes, or no? A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - Cognitive Engineering Podcast: Polarisation https://soundcloud.com/aleph-insights/polarisation - Ambiguity intolerance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ambiguity_tolerance%E2%80%93intolerance - What drives ambiguity intolerance: https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/psychology/tolerance-of-ambiguity - Ambiguity intolerance and politics https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jcpy.1176 - Hofstede’s cultur

We look at the YAM cryptocurrency bug and ask whether in a digital age our capacity to mess up has spiralled out of control. In this podcast we examine software bugs and other types of error, and discuss whether there is any connection between the size of an error and its consequence. We also attempt to classify types of errors and look at how they might be compounded by the complex systems humans have created. Finally, we consider if errors are uniquely human phenomena or whether they can occur in our absence. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - The YAM bug: https://www.theregister.com/2020/08/13/yam_cryptocurrency_bug_governance/ - The El Dorado fire: https://www.turnpikelaw.com/family-whose-gender-reveal-party-caused-lethal-el-dorado-fire-may-face-criminal-charges/ Find more Cognitive Engineering episodes here https://link.chtbl.com/SQeIgc44 Image: Alex Proimos via Wikimedia Commons

With the recent discovery of phosphine gas on Venus, we debate whether Dan Dare has now been vindicated. This podcast explores what we can infer from the small amounts of data we receive from space, and whether we have sufficient data to develop meaningful models of what is happening on other planets. We also discuss the way theories and counter-theories develop and - of course - alien life itself and the probability of its existence in different forms. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - ‘Phosphine Gas in the Cloud Decks of Venus’ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4 - Bill Clinton’s announcement about the Allan Hills meteorite: https://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/snc/clinton.html - Why Nick Bostrom hopes we don’t find extraterrestrial life: https://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf - The Drake Equation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation#:~:text=The%20Drake%20equation%20is%20a,in%20the%20Milky%20Way%20galaxy - The search for megastructures: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dy

What is a fair way to decide an exam result in the absence of being able to sit the exam? In this podcast we discuss the background to the controversial A-Level algorithm debacle. We also touch on the concept of fairness in examinations and consider the essence of what we are trying to measure through an exam. Finally, we look at the application of algorithms to other areas of performance assessment, such as sport. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - Explanation of the OFQUAL algorithm: https://rpubs.com/JeniT/ofqual-algorithm - Accuracy of predicted grades: https://www.ucu.org.uk/media/8409/Predicted-grades-accuracy-and-impact-Dec-16/pdf/Predicted_grades_report_Dec2016.pdf - Earlier research on predictive accuracy: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/32412/11-1043-investigating-accuracy-predicted-a-level-grades.pdf Find more Cognitive Engineering episodes here https://link.chtbl.com/SQeIgc44 Image: dcJohn via Flickr

Is procrastination a total waste of time or can it be productive? If you have something important to do, you should really spend the next 25 minutes listening to us discuss the topic. In this podcast we discuss why we feel the urge to procrastinate, and whether it reduces or increases stress in the long run. We also consider the nature of tasks we like to avoid and what the potential benefits of time wasting activities might be. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - Wait But Why? on procrastination https://waitbutwhy.com/2013/10/why-procrastinators-procrastinate.html - Svartdal et al, Behavioural Delay in Real-Time Settings https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00746/full - The science behind procrastination https://www.psychologicalscience.org/observer/why-wait-the-science-behind-procrastination - Westgate et al, Productive Procrastination https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5551689/#:~:text=Productive%20procrastination%20replaces%20one%20adaptive,outcomes%20in%201106%2

What does it mean when we lose something and why are some of us better at finding things than others? We define the concept of losing something and discuss different heuristics, strategies and technologies that have developed to help us find things. We also mention the psychological impact of losing something, how much time we spend looking for stuff and consider why some people may be better predisposed to locate misplaced objects. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - Humans are surprisingly unproductive with their eye movements when searching for items. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2016.2767 - Passport application data https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-passport-office-data-august-2020 - Express article on losing things https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/681961/Common-lost-items-keys-phones-glasses-revealed-list - Losing objects can induce grief https://www.harleytherapy.co.uk/counselling/losing-something-you-love.htm - Losing things has a genetic component? h

Recent research suggests there will be a significant reduction in the birth rate over the course of the next century. What would this mean if it were true? In this podcast we discuss the accuracy of population forecasts, the assumptions they are based on, and the relationship between the number of people and factors such as productivity and societal innovation. We also attempt to predict some of the implications of an aging population with fewer children and ask whether there is an optimal number of human beings. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - BBC coverage of declining fertility https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521 - The ‘Lump of Labour’ fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy - Derek Parfit’s repugnant conclusion https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/repugnant-conclusion/ Find more Cognitive Engineering episodes here https://link.chtbl.com/SQeIgc44 Image via PickPic

With a case of the bubonic plague being contracted in Mongolia after consumption of a wild marmot, we consider whether disgust at certain foodstuffs serves a protective purpose. We all experience disgust, but do we really think about it? In our latest podcast, we list some of the more disgusting foods we've come across while discussing why we find somethings more repugnant than others. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - Boy eats marmot, dies https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/15/asia/mongolia-plague-death-scli-intl/index.html - Neural basis for cheese disgust https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnhum.2016.00511/full - The mystery of disgust https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/articles/199801/mystery-disgust - The disgust test http://people.stern.nyu.edu/jhaidt/disgustscale.html Find more Cognitive Engineering episodes here https://link.chtbl.com/SQeIgc44 Image: DC via Wikimedia Commons