Investor Insights

It's summer. We have seen this movie before. Low volumes, more chop, louder news headlines to get your attention. There are some things worth paying attention to - so let's focus on those issues instead of all the negatives. Grab some popcorn and remember this: Fear drives your attention, people drive markets. Listen in and let us know what you think.

When I was a kid, my early years were focused on sailing the oceans. I learned much about life, people - and markets - as we sailed race after race - winning most. Amazingly, 40 years later - all the lessons still serve us well. The two most important for markets and generational wealth-building: 1) Stay focused on the current - not the surface of the water and 2) Keep a steady hand on the wheel during storms. Listen in and let us know what you think!

Ah yes, 10 days into summer and we are already hearing the call of the Black Swan. Who on Earth knows what it will be next. Brexit is in line, the Fed rate hike or not is here too. How about China? Wasn't that the monster of the week recently? The bottom line: pray for a summer swoon. Yes, that's right - pray for one. Why? History tells us that, given the fact we are a mere 3% from all-time highs, every single one of them have been opportunities at lower prices. Listen in and let us know what you think!

Masked by all the hype, soundbite, headline and worry-a-second hysteria we seem to now deem as normal for markets and investing, the Fed data this week shows we have NEVER been richer. That's right, in all of time before us, inclusive of every single element we fear today, having already happened, US wealth - per capita, nominal and per household, has never been greater. Those who have suffered are often those who have panicked about the future. Face it folks, we can wish it away if we like, but our demographics are set in stone....and they will last for decades. Not weeks, not in a quarterly earnings report, not missing by a penny....but decades of time. Think demographics - not economics. We are in great shape. Listen in and let us know what you think!

When I was two years into the biz - in 1984 - during a particularly stressful week, someone I learned to respect greatly over time told me this: "Kid, there is a lot less to trading than meets the eye." He was correct. Our mind is what gets in the way along the path. It is not the market that fools us - it is us who fools us. Stay focused, be patient. Our best days are STILL ahead. Listen in and let us know what you think!

The jobs report on Friday suddenly drove the experts to suggest that the economy was running on empty. Nothing could be further from the truth. We need to realize the difference between 30-day reports which will change dynamically at times and 30-year trends which cannot be interrupted. There will always be ebbs and flows in the monthly and weekly views. Long-term investors must recognize these issues as opportunistic and not something to fear. Listen in and let us know what you think.

There is an age-old quest for investing with no risk. There is no such thing. Money for nothing is only a line in a song - not a secret pathway through the investing world that only a few know about. Make sure you understand one fact about investing: If you expect a return, you will be taking risk. Said another way, you want no risk, a) you are not investing and b) you cannot expect a return. Once these facts are accepted, the emotional triggers that "risk" causes in the minds of most investors will dissipate. Listen in and let us know what you think.

Ok so we made it through the sell in May process and now need to make sure we are aware of the next issue the press will make a big deal of - summer. Lets hope for a summer swoon to keep the fear in place and the values solid for long-term investors.

As covered before, summer swoons are positive - not something to be afraid of. The issue we might want to consider is this: After all the mess of the last 18 months, with the market basically going nowhere, the surprise might be that we break out to new highs sooner than expected. Listen is for more.

Here we cover the hot topics before the Memorial Day Break. The GDP revision was upward as expected - listen in for more.

Far too many investors have been led astray by bogus definitions of our "paltry" economic growth. In reality, since 2012, we have added $2 TRILLION to our annual GDP. Do we really want to call that a failed recovery? Before you assume the media has it right, we have NEVER created $2 Trillion in new GDP in a span of 42 months - in the history of our country. The good news is that our best days are still ahead....hold on.

In the most recent minutes from the Fed, there was "shock" that we may indeed face another 25 basis point rate hike in June. Here is the difference this time though: less than 48 hours later, the market was higher than where it was before the minutes were released. This is a character shift that we suspect will be very important a couple years down the road - and in a good way for investors focused on the long-term horizon.

Bottom line: now that the entire world is fretting over deflation and cheap oil, we suggest to you that inflation is coming back. Before you get frightened, inflation is a good thing. Most assuredly one would want inflation over deflation. Listen in and let us know what you think.

For years the audience has been taught to ret over "the Fed Minutes." It is as though we have simply added new trash to the pile of things to worry about. In the long run, they mean little, if anything. Having started in this business in 1982, I can confidently tell you that for the first 25 of those years, no one ever spoke about the Fed Minutes. In time we will find there is such a thing as too much stuff to read and "be aware of." Investors need to embrace that our best days are ahead of us. Stay focused on that and listen in - let us know what you think.

Well what do you know, economic data are improving in all fronts: housing, retail, incomes, profits, GDP, industrial production and durable goods orders. Focus on the doom-sayers at your peril. The world is not ending. Indeed, thanks to Generation Y and the Barbell Economy, we have a rocket ship getting ready to leave the launch pad. Explosive surprises are ahead as 86 million kids begin to grow up and impact the world in wonderful ways - all from the US economy platform. Listen in and let us know what you think.

In this episode we cover the very dynamic economic issues powering ahead for the US - in a positive way - under all the negative chatter in the headlines. Learn this: the news is designed to get your attention. The media cannot get your attention with good news - so they scare you with bad news. Be unafraid. Participate in this set of ideas instead: Generation Y is going to change the world. Most did not recognize this in the early 80's when the Baby Boom was set to explode into our economic system. Gen Y is bigger, better, smarter. They have just begun. It is the first inning of a new ballgame. Just like when the shuttle took off - T-30 seconds and counting was always an exciting time before lift-off. Stay patient and focused. Happy Memorial Day weekend.

As investors viewing the long-term horizon, sometimes one needs to stand tall to see over all the weeds. Higher altitude viewing provides a better perspective often in this age of push button reactions. Listen in and let us know what you think.

Like the shuttle when the countdown hits T minus 5 seconds and the massive engine ignites, many do not understand the powers which are brewing under the surface of the US economy. We are the only western developed economy with the demographic benefits unfolding. Don't get too bored - it takes time - but the trends last 30 years.

Too many investors are reaching hasty conclusions which always lead them to believe the end of life as we know it somehow near. Once monster after another comes and goes. There is no Apocalypse awaiting us all. Indeed, we will set records in GDP output this year - like we have for every year other than two in recent decades (2008/2009). Our economy is heading into growth stages most do not understand. Listen in and let us know what you think.

Even though we have suggested May and the summer doldrums could work against the market and cause another swoon (to take advantage of), we stand by the idea that the bear argument continues to ring hollow. In this episode we stand back for a larger view of the data and reconsider one thought: it's better than the masses understand. That said, patience will be tested again before we are out of the cloud of dust.