Investor Insights

In this episode we review a few current stats - and ask this question: Are we really not seeing the obvious? We are at record high GDP - even as we watch a pause in the pace of growth.

How many times have the experts excuses of the moment for certain doom been proven wrong. How many times have we been told something was bad for us - only to see that the opposite scenario is also bad? It is was not so sad it would be funny. Listen in and let us know what you think.

Many times in history we have seen a pause that lasts a couple years. This one is going on 19 months old and the markets have gone nowhere fast. Lots of churn - lots of trepidation - lots of overblown fears and angst. In the end, we are not as bad off as feared. We need to simply recognize this as a lunch stop on the way up a very large mountain. The coming summer swoon lookout rule? Look for opportunity for long-term growth as too many will remain afraid. Listen in and let us know how you feel.

Too many think they can be ready for the next surprise. It's called a surprise for a reason - no one sees it coming. Black Swans are the same by the way - hence, they are impossible to see before they arrive which is their definition. Here is the kicker though: Not everything "out of left field" is going to be negative. Listen in and let us know what you think.

We have watched the markets move to and fro for the last 18 - almost 19 months now, effectively going nowhere. Indeed, over the last 12 months, all major averages are in the red - year to date - they are they are teetering between red and green, depending on the week. Walking in quicksand is what we call it. We have had periods like this before - the mid-80's and '94-'95. Both looked bleak - both were a pause. Both were as frustrating and tense as we find ourselves now. But, neither turned into a recession - both in fact, were turned out to be foundations from which we launched the next growth wave. Listen in and let us know what you think.

Too much confusion, too much data, too many opinions, too much stress, so little time. This has historically led to poor decisions for many. Let's step way back and see the bigger picture with a far more productive perspective. Listen in and let us know what you think.

Earnings seasons are almost always the same in recent years - full of stress and anxiety about results - from the last 90 days. In this episode we cover just how much can be overlooked when we think in constant terms of "worst-case scenario" on nearly every data point released. Listen in and let us know what you think.

In this episode we cover the lengthy earnings parade which happens 4 times a year. The process has become cumbersome as the media and headline machine drives volatility. Make sure to listen in and let us know what you think. The real earnings "recession" will end as soon as we round-trip the energy sector implosion and sector adjustment.

In this episode we review why the earnings season may give us another wave down to take advantage of in building for the surprising upside in our future as Generation Y takes the reins.

In this episode we cover the aspects of the slower growth GDP readings as well as all the reasons we should not be shocked. After-all, once you listen in, it will be easy to recognize why we have this tepid economic growth. It's a combination of fear, anxiety and fiscal policies which are stifling the ability for business to expand. Lopping billions off the top of the growth we are seeing for social program investments nullifies most of the efforts.

As we approach May, one can already hear the chatter about "sell in May and go away". If it only worked so easily. History tells us we are far better off using the summer swoons to build upon, rather than run from. Listen in and let us know what you think.

In the media frenzy an investor goes through each day to consumer information, the larger events are often overlooked. In my day we called it "missing the boat". Today, in Generation Y terms, with rapid expansion of technology, sure to remake all that we "know", it is more like "missing the Drone...." Listen in and let us know what you think!

Today we consumer information about our economy based on tools and measuring sticks used in the 50's and 60's. Do we really think we are getting the best data? Think of it this way. Imagine you needed a brain scan to see if you had a tumor. Imagine further that it was very important to get the best data - a real snapshot of the "truth." Then imagine that your doctor rolls in a machine from the 50's and 60's to do your brain scan today. How would you feel? Would you feel confident in the results? Or, would you want a second opinion with a better machine?

Hey, it's April Fools Day and a review of some of the foolish things we allow to seep into our brains from media headlines is indeed funny when viewed from afar. Make no mistake - we are living through a period of fog right now as the baton is being passed from the Baby Boom to Generation Y. The upside is significant in the years ahead. Change is taking hold - which is being masked by the fog. Stay focused and think long-term.

As spring break ends for kids and families, we are back to the grind of markets. Next up for the media" First quarter earnings which are now fully expected to be ugly (they won't be). Then, right after that parade is done - let's be prepared for the onslaught of the "sell in May and go away fear" mongering. Use sell in May dips and hoped for summer swoons as additional spots this year to take advantage of unrelenting fears - overblown again. Remember, fear and values hunt together.

In this episode we cover the various latest media headlines and then think through just how comical they can become when read from a larger perspective. In the end, being too short-term will blind investors to the much larger picture unfolding for the US economy. Think late 70's / early 80's. Things are going to be very surprising ahead.

In this episode we will redefine the garbage fed to the investing audience by the media. Our system is working just fine thanks - and the fears driven by media blasts are just there to take your eye off the ball. As long-term investors we must work diligently to stay focused on the long-term horizon. Too often, the simplest elements are overlooked. To gain the advantage of long-term investing growth figures so often quoted, one must invest through it all...the good, the bad and the ugly.

A simple but unsettling title causes one to recognize the long-term aspect we must retain in our thinking. Yes, we are being told to "fear" an "earnings recession" today. We have covered this for months as the markets have idled in place for 18 months. We suspect we have another quarter or two to go - and the "recession" will be done. Until then, don't let headlines put you off track. After all, history shows for a couple hundred years that the next 100% move in markets - is up.

The peak oil theory was wrong back in 2008 when oil hit $147 a barrel and the world trembled. The end of oil is almost as incorrect today - though its power has changed forever. Oil won't go to $10 - probably not even $20. Instead we stand by what we have stated for 18 months. A new price range between $30 and $80 for decades to come - give or take a few bucks. In the end, oil will slowly become a relic as Generation Y births new power sources and wind, solar, battery and hydrogen take more and more of the market in coming years.

In this episode we cover the idea that "news" immediately takes away the power of surprise. The more significant issues one would want to fret over in the markets would be surprises. Hence, by definition, we cannot plan for them. Thinking that something which has been covered for months (take your pick in the menu of fears) is somehow going to "surprise" the market is a waste of time - and often leads to dreadful errors in investment planning. Look to left field we always say - and remember, not all surprises are bad ones.