Cocktail Investing

In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political happenings and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals.   America woke up on Independence Day morning to learn that North Korea is now capable of landing an ICBM in Alaska, highlighting one aspect of our Safety and Security investing theme. The next day the markets yawned. Wednesday the Federal Reserve released the meeting notes from its most recent meeting on rates in which we saw that most blamed the PCE deflationary trend on telecom and prescriptions. Hmmm, while we have seen downward pricing pressure in these areas, removing them shows very little impact on the year-over-year changes in the 3-month moving average for PCE. (Say that five times fast) ISM Manufacturing and Markit Manufacturing reports painted a very different picture with the U.S. Census data more in line with Markit’s more negative view than the ISM’s upbeat finding. A re

What we can learn from the Petya and WannaCry attacks with Gray Hall, Chairman & CEO of Alert Logic along with our take on the weakening economic data   In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political happenings and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals. We then have a fascinating discussion with the Chairman & CEO of Alert Logic, Gray Hall.   A few highlights include:     Tuesday the U.S. Dollar experienced its worst day in three months after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi gave an optimistic speech on the state of the Eurozone economy, citing improving political tailwinds and a reemergence of reflationary pressures. While the Eurozone continues to show signs of acceleration, this week's Durables report showed an economy stuck in slow gear with both core shipments and orders falling 2 percent month-over-month versus expectations for an increase of 0.4 percent. Whi

With a couple of recent moves by Amazon (AMZN), we now count six — SIX!  — investment themes where the company isn't just touching on a category, but fundamentally changing it and how the mainstay companies are able to compete, let alone survive.  In this special excerpt of Episode 24 of Cocktail Investing, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins dig into several recent moves made by Jeff Bezos and the Amazon management team and what it means not just for consumers, but investors as a whole, and which companies it spells trouble for. 

In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political happenings and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals. A few highlights include:   While most Wall Street economists are still forecasting Q2 GDP to be around 3 percent, the NY Fed’s Nowcast and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow are below 2 percent, with an even lower forecast for Q3. We point out what they are likely seeing that the usual Wall Street suspects are missing and why this could be problematic for 2Q 2017 earnings season. With the first half of 2017 almost over, only one other year going all the way back to 1928 has had a smaller maximum drawdown in equity indices during the first half. Find out what tends to happen in years where the first half sees such a steady move up. The yield curve is giving us a very different message from the major equity indices. We discuss what and why this is important for investors. We talk about what is ha

It seems every day we hear about the inevitability of the autonomous car, a component of our Disruptive Technology investing theme, with many hoping that it will usher in a new area of safety.  To better understand the evolution of the smarter vehicle, Tematica Research’s mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins spoke with Ted Cardenas, Senior Vice President of Marketing, Car Electronics Division at Pioneer Electronics Corp (PNCOY). Pioneer isn’t just innovating within entertainment and communications as the company is also developing advanced driver assist for both OEM and aftermarket, allowing owners of older cars to benefit from the latest in safety improvements. When asked about his expectations around the timeline for the truly driverless car, Ted framed his analysis in the context of the evolution of in-car GPS systems – an evolution by degrees rather than a binary event.   Companies mentioned on the Podcast Alphabet (AAPL) Apple (AAPL) BMW (BMWYY) Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) Intel (INTC) Pand

In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political happenings and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals. A few highlights include:   (02:50) The International Triple Threat: While attention is focused on the UK elections, there are three other risks that are coming into focus in Europe, including North Korean leader Kim Jon Un, Beppe Grillo potentially becoming the Italian Prime Minister and the current ongoings in Washington. (06:36) Lenore Gets Jolted from the JOLTS! Why the April JOLTS report served as strong reminder that several headwinds to economic liftoff remain… hint: it’s good news for our Tooling &Retooling investment theme. (11:42) Biz Roundtable: Curb Your Enthusiasm: Despite the Business Roundtable’s upbeat CEO Economic Outlook Index for the current quarter, standalone comments from Wells Fargo and Toronto-Dominion paint a much different picture. (20:50) Why we’re not su

Tune in for the special excerpt from Episode 21 of Cocktail Investing. While the amount of wealth accumulating in China is staggering, the reality is that it is India where the big opportunities could be for investors. Listen in as Cocktail Investing hosts Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace discuss the realities of the Aging of the Population investment theme creating headwinds in China, versus India, which has a much younger population. Subscribe to the podcast on: iTunes ( itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/c... ) Stitcher ( www.stitcher.com/podcast/temat... ) Or as always on www.TematicaResearch.com

Tune in for the special excerpt from Episode 2 of Cocktail Investing. In this segment, your hosts Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace dig into the realities of today's housing market and the uncomfortable reality that it's feeling more and more like 2007 again when it comes to housing and mortgages. Subscribe to the podcast on: iTunes ( https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/c... ) Stitcher ( http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/temat... ) Or as always on http://www.TematicaResearch.com

Tune in for the special excerpt from Episode 21 of Cocktail Investing. In this segment, Tematica Chief Macro Strategist Lenore Hawkins (the Bond Girl) digs into the realities of the Trump Bump transitioning into the Trump Slump this summer and the 2 Bond ETF's that are poised to gather even more AUM. Subscribe to the podcast on: iTunes ( https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/c... ) Stitcher ( http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/temat... ) Or as always on http://www.TematicaResearch.com

In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political happenings and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals. A few highlights include: Americans continue to be heavy consumers of digital content, but a new report from Zenith sheds some light on how mobile consumption has altered the playing field. We discuss what it means for the AT&T and Time Warner merger, as well as Dycom Industries. A reality check on recent economic data shows why the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed recently cut GDP expectations for 2Q 2017. Why the Trump Bump is increasingly looking like the summer’s Trump Slump Why Americans are making fewer and fewer… well more than fewer… more like 433 million fewer lunchtime visits to restaurants and what it means for Darden and other casual dining restaurants. Plus how does Costco fit into the picture? While the investing herd continues to focus on China, we share why India is sho

Tune in for the special excerpt from Episode 20 of Cocktail Investing. In this segment, Tematica Chief Macro Strategist Lenore Hawkins separates myth from reality on the oh so sexy topic . . .GDP Growth! Yes, GDP Growth can actually be an exciting topic, just have a listen and hear for yourself what Lenore has to say on the topic and the realities of what, if anything, President Trump and his policies can do to impact it. Subscribe to the podcast on: iTunes ( https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/c... ) SoundCloud ( https://soundcloud.com/user-848752064 ) Stitcher ( http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/temat... ) Or as always on http://www.TematicaResearch.com

Tune in for the special excerpt from Episode 20 of Cocktail Investing. In this segment, Tematica Chief Investment Officer Chris Versace and Chief Macro Strategist Lenore Hawkins dig into the state of the restaurant industry, in particular, a quote from Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) CEO who recently stated that the casual dining industry has peaked. Pretty scary for the head of one of the larger fast casual restaurant chains to basically say "it's over folks!". Tune in for this quick 5 minute overview.  

In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political events and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals. From Wawa embracing the Connected Society’s mobile ordering like Starbucks and Panera to the rebound in HP's ink sales, as well as Jimmy Choo sharing its view on the how and why brick & mortar retail shopping has to change and why Red Robin thinks casual dining has “had its moment.“ Lenore and Chris break it all down and share what it means. Tematica’s mixologists also tackle the underlying assumption in President Trump’s 2018 budget, react to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s call to increase the debt ceiling, share why the OPEC production cut extension is likely good for US energy companies, and dissect the latest economic data. As they do this, they dig into why they are increasingly confident GDP and earnings expectations for the back half 2017 have a greater likelihood of being re

With headlines swirling following the weekend’s WannaCry attack that hit more than 200,000 computers across more than 150 countries, we’re breaking with our usual format to speak with Yong-Gon Chon, CEO of cyber security company Focal Point to get his insights on that attack, and why ransomware will be THE cyber threat in 2017. Before we share that Safety & Security conversation, Tematica’s investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins break down this week’s economic and market data as well as the latest relevant political events.   Companies mentioned on the Podcast com (AMZN) Apple (AAPL) CVS Health (CVS) Disney (DIS) Facebook (FB) Focal Point JC Penny Co (JCP) Kohl’s (KSS) Macy’s (M) Microsoft (MSFT) Netflix (NFLX) Nordstrom (JWN) TJX Companies (TJX) Twitter (TWTR) United Parcel Service (UPS) Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)   Resources for this podcast: Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com Focal Point Data Risk h

In this week’s program, Tematica’s investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins sit down to discuss some of the week’s economic data, relevant political events and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals. From the ongoing slaughter in brick-and-mortar retail that sits at the intersection of our Cash-strapped Consumer, Cash-less Consumption and Connected Society themes to Coca-Cola’s (K) CEO blaming the Connected Society on falling soda sales volumes in the face of consumers’ continual moves towards Food’s with Integrity, we break down the week’s news into actionable analysis while having ourselves a little fun.   More Signs of a Slowing Economy The markets have recently been incredibly calm, with the S&P 500 moving less than 0.5 percent between the day’s high and low for over two weeks, which is unprecedented over the past 30 years. Despite that calm, we are seeing more signs of a slowing economy from Markit Economics Manufacturing PMI to April’s auto sales to the pai

In this week’s episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, Tematica’s resident mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, once again dig through all the earnings noise, economic data and latest policy plans spinning out of Washington to distill it down into clear investing signals.    As usual, there is a helpful amount of fun and good humor along the way as they discuss new confirming signs the economy slowed in 1Q 2017 and is starting the current quarter off on rather soft footing. Amid a frenzy of corporate earnings reports this week that includes 200 of the S&P 500 set of companies, one commonality across those reports that we've spotted is expectations for the current quarter are being dialed back. Are Chris and Lenore surprised? No, they are not, because they have been tracking both the hard and the soft economic data, as well other corroborating indicators like truck tonnage, rail traffic and other transport data.    Lenore and Chris review that data and more as well as talk about: Their reacti

  After a one week break over Easter, Tematica’s Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins have a lot to discuss — from the recent wobbles in U.S. equities to the recent economic data that points to an economy that is nowhere near as robust as many were anticipating at the start of the year. On the podcast, they discuss:   How economic warning signs are mounting from contraction in the auto sector to housing rolling over and office vacancies on the rise while industrial production saw 16 of 20 sub-sectors in decline in March. What the bond market is telling us about growth prospects. With the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting 0.5% growth for Q1 versus 3.4% on February 1st, this may be this first time since 1948 that the economy will have gone through an entire expansion without once seeing the four quarter trend in GDP over 5%. According to Bank of American Merrill Lynch, a record number of fund managers think stocks are overpriced today, and that survey goes back to 1999 — not exactly a year known for stock bargains!

  In this week’s program Tematica’s cocktail mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins, speak with Sal Gilbertie, President, Chief Investment Office and co-founder of Teucrium Trading, who explains how individual investors can invest in agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn, soybeans and sugar through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and why these types of investing vehicles are something to consider. Following the theory of buy-what-you-know, investing in agricultural products makes sense given the exposure we all have on a daily basis. Traditionally trading commodities has only been feasible with futures, which introduces a level of complexity that many investors — professional and individual — understandably opt to avoid. However, agricultural commodities have unique attributes that we find appealing, for example, they have historically had very low correlation with the equity markets, in particular, grain commodities, which tend to move counter-cyclical to their related equities and can help stabil

Awash in March quarter data this week, Tematica Research’s Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins once again pore over all the economic and stock market noise to hone in on what’s really going on and share several thematic investing signals. On the podcast you’ll hear the following and much, much more:   • Our take on weaker than expected March auto sales as well as the latest income tax data and why they are confirming data points for our Cash-strapped Consumer investing theme; • Why rising margin debt levels mixed with the stock market’s current valuation is likely to make for a return in volatility as the velocity of 1Q 2017 corporate earnings reports explodes; • How Amazon is looking to double down on our Content is King investing theme; • Our thoughts on why Food with Integrity company Panera Bread is being acquired; • Steps Proctor & Gamble is taking to fend off its Connected Society competitors and appeal to the Cash-strapped Consumer; • How and why Facebook is positioning itself for Cashless Consumption

While Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been around for about twenty years, there has been an explosion in investor appetite in recent years as ETFs investment strategies have proliferated. For example, in the first quarter of 2017 $135 billion flowed into ETFs versus just $29.6 billion in 2016, over four times the inflow in over the past year! Tematica’s resident mixologist, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins, discuss what’s behind this and what’s to come with Darek Wojnar, Head of Exchange Traded Funds at Hartford Funds. During the conversation, we talk about challenges to launching new ETFs, the differences between sustainable ETFs and those that might be “flashes in the pan”, and the importance of risk assessment when not only considering an ETF, but when it’s being constructed. Along the way, Darek discusses Hartford Funds newest ETFs, which focuses on something Lenore simply finds fascinating – bonds. For the seasoned investor or new ones looking to better understand the ETF industry, this is simply a mus