Cocktail Investing

For more than two years, we’ve used our thematic lens to distill the everyday noise around into clear investing signals. We’ve shared thematic signals for our 10 investing themes, shared conversations with management teams, portfolio managers and key thought leaders. But after more than 100 Cocktail Investing podcasts, we are making a change. As we leave Cocktail Investing behind, we are launching the Thematic Signals podcast. Is anything changing? Only the name. The same great noise distillation will continue unabated provided you follow us to the new show. The new episodes will be posted on Tematica Research, iTunes, Spotify and elsewhere. I encourage you to subscribe so you don’t miss an episode. For example, on the inaugural Thematic Signals podcast I explain from a thematic perspective what is happening and why with retailer earnings, and which retailers are positioned to benefit from a thematic perspective. I also explain exactly why retail is a key part of the US economy and how it drives nearly 20% o

On today’s podcast we discuss the renewed sense of uncertainty in the stock market following the US-China trade SNAFU that is simply not what investors were expecting just 10 days ago. With weeks to go until the next round of trade talks, investors will focus on the potential impact from the latest round of trade tariffs on existing growth expectations for the economy and corporate earnings. Following the recent sharp market sell off as investors grapple with these issues and the renewed risk off mindset, we could see a dead cat bounce emerge and rather than fall for this potential head fake investors should stay on the sidelines until building their shopping list for when the market stabilizes. The kinds of companies to examine include those that are undergoing a business transformation that will allow them to more adeptly ride our investing themes. We walk through examples ranging from Apple and Disney to AT&T and Axon Enterprises. The podcast closes out with some of the latest signals for our Digital L

On today’s podcast we sit down with Dan Ahrens, the portfolio manager of the AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO), the first actively managed ETF with a dedicated cannabis investment mandate domiciled in the United States. Dan is no stranger to the investing in vice stocks (tobacco, gaming, alcohol) and he is bringing that experience and due diligence acumen to this Cannabis focused ETF. Unlike most ETFs, Pure Cannabis is actively managed, and Dan explains the reasons for that as well as the benefits it can bring to an ETF. During the podcast, Dan talks not only several of the ETF’s top holdings, but also how he sees the long game playing in the cannabis opportunity.   Have a topic or a conversation you think we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com   And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!   Resources for this podcast: AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO) - https://www.advisorshares.com/fund/yolo AdvisorShares - https://www.advisorshar

We’re halfway through the March quarter earnings season and so far, aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 is running ahead of expectations, and that has helped drive the market to new highs. Yet, as evidenced by results from 3M, Tesla, Sherwin Williams, Gorman Rupp and others that are feeling the impact of the slowing global economy, there are pockets of weakness investors should avoid. We discuss that as well as several new thematic data points, including Apple’s Service business and what it means for how investors should compare it to other smartphone companies, as well as the new IPO that is plant-based protein company Beyond Meat, that add credence to Tematica’s Digital Lifestyle, Disruptive Innovators, Cleaner Living and Safety & Security investing themes. Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at cversace@tematicaresearch.com And don’t forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!  Resources for this podcast: Chris Versace –@ChrisJVersace Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEc

As we get ready for more than 685 companies to report their March quarter results this week, there are apt to be a number of key data points for our Digital Infrastructure, Digital Lifestyle, Rise of the New Middle Class, Guilty Pleasure and Cleaner Living investing themes. On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we walk through which ones we’ll be digging into with respect to those themes and the other 5 investing themes. You may think smokes and beer, but when Altria (MO), Boston Beer (SAM), Starbucks (SBUX), Nokia and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) report, our thematic lens sees data, data, data and more data.  Coming into the week, roughly 15% of the S&P 500 companies have reported, which means the vast majority will be doing so on the coming weeks. As we close this week, 45% of the S&P 500 will have shared their March quarter results and updated their guidance, which will set the stage for what’s to come at us in the following weeks. We also get our first look at March quarter GDP this w

On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we share not only what the Fed said exiting its latest monetary policy meeting, but how and why that was very different from the last few of these meetings. It comes as no surprise that Fed Chairman Powell cites our Middle-Class Squeezetheme as one of the culprits to the Fed’s revisions, but an emerging headwind for our Living the Lifeinvesting theme is also rearing its head. We also share some latest signals for our Clean Living, Disruptive Innovatorsand Digital Infrastructurethemes, including how drinking two or more sugary sodas or sports drinks a day linked with early death and development is already being started on what will come after 5G. We end the podcast talking about how the growing number of video streaming services, including new ones from Apple and Disney, is likely to give way to a new kind of multi-content subscription packages that could include streaming video, music, gaming and news. That’s a new development that could alter the competitive

On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we focus on the growing headwind for the economy and retail that is associated with our Middle-Class Squeeze investing theme. Consumers, especially those associated with our Aging of the Population investing theme, have racked up record credit card debt over the last several years, and it’s beginning to weigh on their ability to spend. This has reignited retail apocalypse as the number of announced brick & mortar store closings reignites following disappointing holiday sales and same-store comp sales and the continued shift to digital shopping that is part of our Digital Lifestyle investing theme. On the podcast we talk about which retailers are benefitting from the Middle-class Squeeze tailwinds, which means vibrant same-store comps and opening more locations in the coming months. In addition, we run through the latest economic data and share why we’ll be paying close attention to insider selling activity between now and the end of March. Have a topic we

On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we dig into the what’s driving of stock market’s best runs in over 20 years, one that has the S&P 500 up nearly 12% year to date. A more dovish Fed and seeming progress on US-Trade are the likely culprits, but underneath it all, the global economy continues to slow, companies are cutting earnings expectations and we’ve seen more dividend cuts thus far in 2019 than we have in all of 2018. Something is amiss as the stock market as expectations for growth in the economy and earnings wane, making the overall market that much expensive. With the velocity of earnings reports about to slow significantly, odds are investors will soon be sitting back and plotting what comes next as we wait for more concrete details on any US-China trade deal. Tucked inside his latest annual shareholder letter, Warren Buffett offers some insight, which meshes very well with not only our thematic investing approach but his concerns over prices matches our current thinking. We break

On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we are just back from InsideETFs 2019, the trade show for exchange traded funds and we share some observations and thoughts on what we saw. Some interesting things coming at investors in the coming months, including fixed income ETFs and Tematica’s Chief Investment Officer offers his take on what investors should consider when looking at so-called thematic ETFs. Also, on the podcast, with Apple and Disney both showcasing their streaming subscription services in the coming weeks, we walk through not only what’s expected but the implications as well. If you’re Netflix, you’re going to want to hear this, especially our blockbuster bundling advice for Apple. We round out the episode talking about the disappointing December Retail Sales report that revealed a month over month decline almost across the board.  As we dig into it, we also touch on a recent Thematic Signal that examines the sharp jump in delinquent auto loan payments. What was expected to be a barn bu

  Stocks pop in January, but earnings continue to come down On this episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, we close the books on one of the best Januaries in years for the stock market and trace back the reasons for its inflection point from a painful year-end 2018 for investors. While some issues that plagued the market have rolled back, one, in particular, hasn’t and it’s one investors use to not only value stocks but determine which ones they are willing to pay up for. That includes a brief discussion on earnings from Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB) and others, but also prompts a conversation on short-selling. We round out the podcast with a few Thematic Signalsthat confirm why Netflix (NFLX) is right to be worried about Fortnite; how consumer products companies like PepsiCo (PEP), Hershey (HSY), and Proctor & Gamble (PG) are embracing our Clean LivingInvesting theme; and why China is poised to become the largest retail market on the planet as our Living the Life, New Global Middle-Class

    The December quarter earnings season has moved into higher gear with more than 250 companies reporting this week. With roughly 15% of the S&P 500 having issued its reports, the results are falling short of historical comparisons while the earnings outlook for 2019 continues to be revised lower. On this episode of the podcast we discuss the implications as well as some of the thematic nuggets shared by Proctor & Gamble (PG) and IBM (IBM) that confirm our Rise of the New Middle-Class, Disruptive Innovators and Safety & Security investing themes. We also share our latest findings on the economy, US-China trade relations and several thematic signals. The thematic signals for this week span our Digital Lifestyle investing theme as we explain why we think Netflix (NFLX) is right to be scared of not Hulu but Fortnite. Our Digital Lifestyle theme meshes with Aging of the Population as the use of sensors and other technologies are being used to keep tabs and assist our aging loved ones. Beer may be a s

The 4Q 2018 earnings season has begun and thus far we’ve had a number of high profile companies, including Apple (AAPL), Samsung, Ford (F), Sherwin Williams (SHW), and Macy’s (M), preannounce weaker than expected results for the quarter. This follows the continued flow of economic data pointing to a slowing global economy. All of this makes for a tenuous earnings season as the velocity of those reports kicks into high gear over the next few weeks. We discuss all of that on this week’s podcast and also share several thematic signals that have caught our attention. These span our Aging of the Population, Digital Lifestyle, Disruptive Innovators, Rise of the New Middle-Class and Guilty Pleasure investing themes. Some of the companies making noise in these signals are Apple, Microsoft (MSFT), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), and Yum Brands’ (YUM) Pizza Hut. Tune into what we have to say about those signals and how they confirm the tailwinds associated with those investing themes. Have a topic we should tackle on t

  With roughly a handful of trading days left in 2018, Tematica’s mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, trace back some of the pivotal events of the last year that have been the primary drivers behind where the global economy, geo-political tensions, and the stock market are today. It started with the signing of US tax reform and finished with yesterday’s December Fed rate hike and revised guidance, with a smattering of US-China trade, Brexit, Italy, corporate debt, global liquidity, and much more in between. As Chris and Lenore share, the issues that have plagued the market over the last several months are likely to do so as we close the books on 2018 and get ready for the upcoming December quarter earnings season. Unlike this time last year, when companies could lean on a tax reform and its benefits to issue an upbeat outlook, this time around we see a number of headwinds that will likely have companies and investors rethinking both economic and EPS growth prospects. Programming note: On the progra

The headlines and the markets have been heavily focused this week on the rising risk that the United Kingdom will exit the European Union without any agreement. Prime Minister Theresa May just barely managed to hold onto her job after a vote of no confidence but has been politically battered, much like Germany’s Angela Merkel, not to mention French President Macron’s horrific weekend during which Paris dealt with violent and destructive riots protesting against his government. European leadership is increasingly weak which is not good for markets.  This week Lenore Hawkins, Chief Macro Strategist for Tematica Research speaks with Marco Caneva on how Brexit affects the economy of the UK and the European Union in ways in which many not realize, creating major headwinds to both economies and exacerbating the Middle Class Squeeze, one of Tematica Research’s investing themes. They also discuss how the European Central Bank’s zero and negative interest rate policies (ZIRP and NIRP) have affect investors, businesses

  As we head into the depths of the holiday shopping season, we enjoyed an incredible conversation with Beck Besecker is the co-founder and CEO of Marxent. Founded 2011, Marxent’s 3D technology solutions that leverage virtual reality and augmented reality are disrupting how consumers shop. Before Marxent, Beck spent 13 years building interactive marketing solutions for Fortune 500 retailers and brands, including Target Stores and Tesco, so we knew this was going to be a fascinating discussion. Marxent’s first project with Lowes (LOW) was in 2013. The company gained national headlines earlier in 2018 when Macy’s (M) released a case study on its partnership with Marxent, a partnership which provided Macy’s customers with the ability to design their living spaces using a VR headset which immerses them in virtual rooms they can create. This project is to date the largest VR rollout in retail history. The project has been so successful that Marxent has signed contracts with at least 11 of the top 25 US furniture r

  On this week’s Cocktail Investing Podcast, Tematica’s Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace center not only on the rash of holiday shopping data coming out of the Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday period but also discuss Fed Chairman Powell’s “near neutral” comment on interest rates. That comment led the stock market to rip higher, offering relief to beleaguered investors that saw the majority of 2018 gains for the domestic stock market wiped out in recent weeks. But… you knew there was a but coming… the reasons behind that shift in tone as well as other risks mean we are not out of the woods just yet. On the podcast, Lenore and Chris explain all of this in further detail and share the confirming data points from the holiday shopping weekend that point to an acceleration in digital shopping that is a cornerstone of our Digital Lifestyleinvesting theme. It’s not just online shopping as mobile shopping scored big this year, smashing records in the process, with the two contributing meaningfully to brick and mortar reta

  Amid what is supposed to be relatively quiet Thanksgiving holiday week for the stock market and investors, the trials and tribulations of the last few weeks have continued focusing rather intently on the technology sector these last few days. Amid the sea of red, the questions most investors are asking are – What is going on? What do I do next? We talked about what is going and what most investors are missing in last week’s podcast, and in terms of what to do, we’re digging into the podcast archives to present a conversation between Tematica’s Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, as she has Tematica’s Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, through the ins and outs of thematic investing. At the heart of thematic investing is recognizing the tailwinds associated with the changing landscapes that are in and around us every day. As we give thanks this week and reflect, it seemed like a good time to revisit this podcast and what makes our thematic investing lens shine. As you finish listening to this, you

  This week on the Cocktail Investing podcast our resident mixologists - Chris Versace, Tematica Research’s Chief Investment Officer and Lenore Hawkins, Tematica Research’s Chief Macro Strategist – talk about major changes underfoot in the equity and bond markets as well as the major macro factors that are likely to impact investors in the months ahead.  We’ve seen a major change in the bond market that few are discussing, but could mean the multi-decade bond bull market has come to an end – or does it?  Those FANG+ stocks that were once the darlings of the growth focused equity world are now all (except one) trading below their 200-day moving average – what does that mean for the market? What does that mean for you? Remember all the drama around Grexit? Well, these days you have to dig pretty deep into the papers to find any discussion on what is happening in Italy and yet the coming years could very well see Italy causing major disruptions in global markets and no one is talking about it. It’s not a disast

  As we push past Halloween and focus on the upcoming holidays, this week we’re joined by Katherine Cullenfrom the National Retail Federation to hear about what her organization expects for retailers during this year’s holiday shopping season. While we’ve all heard the “death of the mall” mantra ad-nauseum, Katherine shared with us that this declaration warrants a Mark Twain style response. While e-Retailing spend as a percent of the consumer’s pocketbook is nearly equal to that for brick and mortar retailers, the NRF’s findings show 50% of those shopping online say they will pick up their purchases in-store. As for convenience, free shipping has become the ATM of online retail – a must-have rather than a nice-to-have. We saw more evidence of that this week when Amazon announced free shipping on all US holiday orders, a move designed to thwart Target and others that are offering free two-day shipping on all orders from November 1 to December 22.  When it comes to the experience, retailtainment has evolved as

During August and September, Tematica’s resident mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, shared their views and convictions surrounding the risks to be ha with the current September quarter earnings season and corporate guidance. As we’ve seen in the last few weeks, those concerns were well founded. In this episode of the Cocktail Investing podcast, Lenore and Chris not only revisit those concerns but share what they think will be driving the stock market narrative as the current earnings season ends in the next few weeks. Those factors are likely to keep investors and stocks on edge as we race toward the end of 2018 and into 2019. Amid the volatile earnings season, the mixologists have continued to uncover a number of confirming signals for Tematica’s 10 investing themes from the likes of Coca-Cola (KO), General Motors (GM), Facebook (FB), Yum! Brands (YUM), Nokia (NOK) and Ericsson (ERIC) as well as iRobot (IRBT) to name several. Wondering what those signals are and what they mean? Listen in and find