Cocktail Investing

On this week’s podcast, we are joined once again by Jamie Wise, founder of Buzz Indices, a Toronto-based hedge fund that has also created the index which powers the BUZZ US Sentiment Leaders ETF (BUZ). That index is leveraging artificial intelligence to collect social sentiment around stocks and translating that into a fund portfolio, that’s a mouthful! Jaime breaks it down for us and walks us through how using investor sentiment and not brand perception, gives insight into which companies may be best poised for longer-term stock price appreciation. We talk through the difference between sentiment versus momentum investing and why there is in practice little overlap between the BUZ ETF and most momentum ETFs. Given the recent dramatic moves in the market, we asked Jaime about what insight his team can share given the massive amounts of data they crunch concerning just how investors feel about stocks. His answers just may surprise you. He shares with us which sectors they’ve seen fall in and out of favor and s

  On this week’s podcast, Tematica’s mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, take a thematic deep dive on the September Retail Sales Report. With the consumer directly or indirectly accounting for nearly two-thirds of the domestic economy and the average consumer spending 31% of his or her paycheck on retails goods, this monthly report is one worth monitoring closely. As with any economic data point, putting it into context provides a clearer perspective and that means examining more than just the September figures. In doing just that thematically, while headline September Retail Sales missed expectations, digging into the meat of the report uncovered a number of confirming data points for several of our investing themes – Digital Lifestyle, Middle-Class Squeeze, and Living the Life among others – and companies that we have identified as Thematic Leaders. Comparing and contrasting the different sub-categories with third party data and company comments shared thus far during the September quarter earnin

  On this week’s podcast Tematica Research’s®mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, tackle the recent shifts in investor sentiment that led to some big pain this week in the US stock market. They trace the impetus for the recent moves back to the data and comments they shared several weeks ago with listeners of the podcast and in their Tematica Research writings. Simply put there has been a melt up in investor worries as a confluence of concerns have come to the forefront of the investing conversation: Signs of a slowing US economy Rising interest rates Growing signs of inflation that call into question the Fed’s velocity of rate hikes More pain at the gas pump Potentially even more escalation in tariffs between the US and China; Rising Italy-Eurozone tensions What all this may mean for both consumer and corporate borrowings and subsequent spending   These are the same concerns that led to the addition of call option short position in an inverse S&P 500 ETF in Tematica Options+ that closed last

On this week’s podcast, we are joined once again by Lee Safar, Chief Ship Steerer of Elixir Specialty Coffee this time to talk the sharp drop of coffee prices – what it means today and for the coming 12-24 months. Because of the current bumper coffee harvest, coffee prices are currently well below the cost of production. That may seem like a great thing for coffee drinkers and the companies behind them today, but with farmers swapping out coffee trees for other crops it will likely mean significantly higher coffee prices down the road when the current supply-demand dynamics don’t just normalize but overshoot in the other direction. And then as Lee explains there is China and its rapidly increasing coffee consumption. While companies love to target China to drive their businesses, what happens when that demand exacerbates a pending global coffee shortage? You guessed it … prices always find an equilibrium, and this one could hurt coffee drinkers in the wallet down the road. Get a cup of coffee while you can, b

This week we’re joined by joined by long-time friend Frank Curzio of Curzio Researchand the host of the Wall Street Unplugged Podcast. Both of the Cocktail Investing Podcast mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, have been on Frank’s podcast in recent weeks and on today’s episode, we return the favor. It’s one of those great conversations that pulls the tarp back on not just investing but some strategies that are used to uncover opportunities, especially ones that have been beaten up. We also talk about tariffs and trade, why Frank is optimistic about the market over the coming year and share some of our own mistakes along the way so listeners can benefit without the pain. While today he’s at his own firm, Frank made his bones working for Jim Cramer and several prominent investment newsletter houses in which he examined thousands of stocks. It’s the kind of perspective and insight that one gets from being in the business for a long time, and like a fine wine, Frank is getting better with age.

On this week’s podcast, Tematica’s Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, is talking about one of the key enablers for mobility as part of our Digital Lifestyle investing theme – lithium ion batteries. That power technology is utilized in a wide array of consumer electronics, electric vehicles, power tools and energy storage applications, and is expected to reach $93.1 billion in size by 2025, growing at a compound annual growth rate of roughly 17%. Joining the conversation is Bill Davidson, a long-time friend of Chris’ and the Chief Operating Officer of AMIONX, a safe battery technology company whose technology prevents batteries from being the source of explosion or fire without sacrificing the performance of the battery. Bill brings some context and perspective to the conversation, including the industry’s growth drivers, potential hiccups and the importance of improving the safety of lithium ion battery technology lest we encounter another issue like the one we saw last year with Samsung’s Galaxy Note 7

  Tematica’s resident mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, recently had the pleasure of chatting with Manish Chandra, Founder and CEO of Poshmark. While technically Poshmark is a digital marketplace where people from the United States can buy and sell new or used clothing, shoes and accessories, the reality is it’s a community based social media platform that matches buyers and sellers of personal clothing. If that sounds like a company at the intersection of our Disruptive Innovators, Digital Lifestyle, Middle-Class Squeeze and Living the Life investing themes, we could not agree more. Moreover, Poshmark’s metrics show an engaged and growing user base that spends 20-25 minutes a day in the Poshmark app, which they open 7-9x per day on average. Not only does Manish have his own closet on Poshmark, but he is a technology geek that is a firm believer in the process of creative destruction. As Chris likes to say, Manish and the Poshmark team are just getting started and have ample market opportunities

  As the long, warm days of summer come to a close and with the Labor Day weekend right around the corner, our resident mixologists, Chris Versace (Tematica Research’s Chief Investment Officer) and Lenore Hawkins (Tematica Research’s Chief Macro Strategist) take a look at what to expect as we head into the last four months of the year. Our dynamic duo discusses what has surprised them in 2018 and where they think the opportunities and risks lie for the remainder of the year and into 2019 as they discuss the ongoing trade wars, potential new agreements with Mexico and Canada, the markets making new highs and the mixed economic data coming in.   Companies mentioned on this podcast Alibaba (BABA) Amazon (AMZN) Apple (AAPL) Coca Cola (KO) Netflix (NFLX) PepsiCo Inc (PEP) SodaStream International Ltd (SODA) Universal Display (OLED) Walmart (WMT)   Resources for this podcast: Louis Federal Reserve Bank - Economic Research (FRED) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org SodaStream to help Pepsico ride the Clean Living slips

On this week’s podcast, Chris Versace, Tematica’ s Chief Investment Officer, spends some time with Mark Abssy who works in Product Development at NYSE Indices at ICE Data Services. Over the course of the last 18 months, Mark and the Tematica team have had an ongoing conversation, which is why when we wanted to talk “inside baseball” as to the history and development of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) and the underlying indices that power them we went to Mark. From explaining how ETPs and underlying indices may differ to how indices are monetized and how they have evolved over the last 20 years to some of their shortcomings, Mark and Chris cover it. Mark also describes NYSE’s historical role in the indexing industry and how that has been changing since the 2012 acquisition by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

  Download Episode   Successful investing requires distancing oneself from emotion and from political biases, letting the data do the talking while attempting to be as objective as possible in assessing the potential risks versus rewards. This week I am failing miserably at this. This week my second home since 2012, Genoa, Italy, made headlines around the world for the worst of all possible reasons. At least 39 people died because a bridge I have traveled across countless times crumbled. Many of those who were on the bridge fell 150 feet to their death and those below the bridge when it collapsed, I cannot even imagine what they experienced. When I think of what it will be like to see that pile of rubble when I return, I alternate between wanting to throw up and scream at the top of my lungs at those who I hold responsible. This should never have happened. The loss of life was thankfully less than it could have been given that a good portion of the city’s residents had already fled the heat during the August

  Download Episode   This week brings us to the midpoint of the September quarter, and there is quite a bit going on despite it being the dog days of summer. From contagion concerns spilling over from Turkey to escalating tariffs between the US and China, more signs of inflation heating up even as more economic data of late has missed expectations, it’s not the ho-hum end of summer many had been hoping for. That’s why we called in long-time friend Keith Bliss of DriveWealth for a conversation on all of those things as well as where he sees the markets heading by year end. You’ve probably listened to Keith on CNBC, Fox Business, Yahoo! Finance and other financial media. In our conversation, not only does Keith bring the experience and wit of an NYSE floor trader, but the deep thought and perspective that makes him a sought-after market commentator. We cover the three “T-s” that are driving the market – Turkey, Tariffs and Trump – and much more in this episode of the podcast. There’s a quite a bit to cover, and

  A chat with Michael Mell, Senior Director, Custom Indices at S&P Dow Jones Industries to discuss the explosion in passive investing.   Download Episode   Recently Tematica Investing’s Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, had the opportunity to chat with Michael Mell, Senior Director, Custom Indices at S&P Dow Jones Industries to discuss the explosion in passive investing that is occurring given consumers adopting exchange traded funds (ETFs) in their portfolios. Underneath the hood of a passive ETF is an index that it tracks that defines its investment strategy and style. The explosion in passive investing and ETFs have given rise to a plethora of custom indices, hence Chris’s conversation with Michael about the ins and out of passive investing and indexing. Along the way, he explains the role of S&P Dow Jones Custom Indices, including how he and Chris worked together to bring the NJCU New Jersey 50 Index (^NJCUPR) to life.   Resources for this podcast: Michael Mell - https://www.linkedin.c

    What the coming 5G technology means for the Connected Car, Connected Home and the Internet of Things   Download Episode   On this week’s episode of Cocktail Investing we are digging deep into the podcast archives. While some may think it’s because we’re entering one of the slowest times of the year, the reality is mobile infrastructure company Nokia just inked the largest known 5G contract with T-Mobile, which in our view means 5G is poised to become a reality over the coming quarters. That access technology will not only improve mobile data speeds and network capacity, but it will also give rise to a number of new disruptions across the Connected Home, Connected Car and the Internet of Things. A great primer conversation was had a while back with James Nolan, who was then Executive Vice President, Research and Development at InterDigital (IDCC) and is now Executive Vice President, IoT Solutions. We’re looking to get Jim back on the podcast for a fresh look at the IoT in the coming weeks but thought the

  Download Episode   With more headlines these days about the potential therapeutic uses of Schedule 1 substances, Tematica’s mixologists Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace talk with William Kelly, Partner at AgriCascadia about the evolving cannabis industry on this week’s podcast. Bill has an incredible track record of being on the cutting edge of major technology and social changes as the co-founder of Sapient Health Network (previously WebMD), Learning.com and ReelDx. In the United States today, 30 states plus the District of Columbia allow medical or recreational cannabis that contains the psychoactive ingredient THC. Over 65% of voters support legalization while over 60% of Americans already live in a state in which it has already been legalized. Globally, the legal cannabis industry is expected to reach $57 billion by 2027, according to Arcview Market Research. The largest group of cannabis buyers is expected to be in North America, rising from $9.2 billion in 2017 to $47.3 billion in 10 years. Outside of

Before the 2Q 2018 earnings season kicks into high gear this week, Tematica mixologists Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace talked about one of the largest self-created holidays known to man – Amazon’s Prime Day — as well as the competitive response that has emerged during this seasonally slow time of the year for retailers. On the global stage, Lenore takes us through the geo-political and trade happenings over the last few weeks and explains how this along with fresh data pointing to a global slowdown has ratcheted up uncertainty risk even as the US stock market continues to march higher. Against that backdrop, Chris shares his concerns for the upcoming earnings season and how earnings from truck logistics company JB Hunt and slowing loan volume growth at JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and PNC suggest a step down in the speed of the domestic economy is likely in the current quarter. It’s all about earnings reality matching up with earnings expectations, and if reality falls short it likely means a turb

  Spinning out of the mounting trade and tariff talk over the last few months, Tematica’s mixologists Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace talk with Teucrium Trading’s Sal Gilbertie on this week’s podcast. Not only is Sal a died in the wool farmer, but he’s also one of the management team behind Teucrium’s agricultural commodity-focused ETFs. That makes the conversation around corn, wheat and soybeans — building block staples for both proteins and a wide array of products that are being increasingly consumed as part of our New Middle Classinvesting theme — one to listen to. Not only are those core ag commodities currently trading below their cost of production, something that historically doesn’t last very long, but because China's arable land, which represents 10% of the total arable land in the world, supports over 20% of the world's population, odds are these ag related tariffs won’t last for a prolonged period. As Sal tells Lenore and Chris, it’s an interesting time for patient investors and this asset class.

On this week’s podcast, Tematica’s mixologists Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace explain what investors should be prepared for as we move into the 2Q 2018 earnings season. While the 2018 narrative started with tax reform, during the 2Q 2018 wore on it became increasingly focused on trade as tariff talk escalated among the US, China, European Union, Mexico and Canada.  With company’s ranging from Harley Davidson to General Motors, Toyota and BMW all crying uncle from the potential tariff impact, we could be in for a very different earnings season than many thought back in January.  Current expectations have the S&P 500 group of companies delivering EPS growth between 20%-22% year over year in the back half of 2018. As Lenore and Chris point out, however, the growing number of headwinds from trade and tariffs to slowing growth, higher interest rates and the rebound in the dollar could result in more conservative guidance than the market is expecting. What could it mean if that expected EPS growth in the seco

As the narrative of the synchronized global economy is weakening and the U.S. is just starting to feel the impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, we spoke with Jesse Felder of the Felder Report to discuss his view of the US and global economy and how he sees the global liquidity tide turning. In keeping with our Aging of the Population investing theme, Jesse walks us through the impact of the Boomer generation on the economy and the markets as they have moved through various life stages. He shares with us his views on the impact of the record levels of debt in the world and the unique generational challenges facing Millennials and how these are going to impact the economy. Jesse also shares with us where he looks for data that can give him insight into how the economy and the markets are evolving, and how he turns the data into meaningful signals. As we discuss his take on where we are in the credit cycle, he shares with us what typically happens during a liquidity pullback and when the dollar weakens or

While many are focused on the escalating trade tariffs between the US and China, let’s remember the eurozone and Canada are poised to implement tariffs as well. Included among Canada’s list of affected products is coffee… yes that all important, lifeblood beverage for team Tematica and millions of others. As the World Economic Forum recently pointed out some two billion cups of coffee are consumed every day, and we’re more than thrilled to learn that three to four cups per day, which is considered moderate, is likely to do more benefit than harm to our health. Good news for the lifespans of team Tematica! Yet, we are seeing declining same-store volumes at Starbucks (SBUX), the company that reinvented the coffee experience, but also a new wave of coffee beverages, including one Tematica's Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, stumbled upon while in San Antonio a few weeks back – Elixir Specialty Coffee. With a tagline of “Looks like whiskey, feels like tea, made from coffee, and unlike anything you’ve tast

  With trade and tariffs once again making headlines ahead of the G7 meeting and next week’s US-North Korea summit, as well as the Fed’s upcoming June FOMC meeting, on this week’s podcast Tematica’s mixologists talk with Mark Hamrick, Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst at Bankrate.comand President of the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW).  While we learn about Mark’s background and eventually that his preferred cocktail is a Manhattan (with rye), Lenore and Chris first talk with him about the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell and then segue onto Mark’s view of the economy and his expectations around interest rate hikes in coming year. Tematica’s Cash-Strapped Consumer investing theme was reinforced by several of the data points that Mark shares, as well as what will likely play out if the Fed does indeed boost rates as expected. During the conversation, the topic of financial literacy was discussed and there’s no sugar coating it, the vast majority of folks in the US are finan