Cocktail Investing

The mainstream media is focusing on the newly formed government in Italy, the Eurozone’s third-largest economy. The reason centers on the new regime’s plan to boost fiscal spending while cutting taxes at a time when Italy’s debt to GDP is 130% and the economy is one of the slower in the Eurozone. Investors are hearing this and thinking Greece on steroids. In this week’s podcast, team Tematica leverages the boots on the ground view had by Chief Macro Strategist Lenore Hawkins, who over the last six years has spent the bulk of her time in Italy. This insight offers a unique perspective on not only how the new government came to power and why Italy is having a difficult time getting its economy to catch fire, but also why the long view is it simply isn’t going to end well. Several keywords from this episode are “ripple effects and ramifications” and when applied to the developing situation in Italy, it means implications for the Eurozone, the euro, the US stock market, the dollar and Treasuries.  Resources for t

This week resident mixologists, Chris Versace, Chief Investment Office and Lenore Hawkins, Chief Macro Strategist focus on the two key issues driving the stock market as we enter the second half of 2Q 2108. With the March quarter earnings season winding down, trade and the Fed have once again taken center stage in a big way, reigniting investor worries.   As Chris and Lenore discuss, they see the bluster emanating from the White House and President Trump’s Twitter feed over new potential import tariffs on auto and cancelling the June 12 meeting North Koreaas the latest negotiating tactics in the Trump playbook. Pretty much it’s Trump: The Art of the Dealon the accelerating escalator and it’s bringing rising uncertainty back into the market. As we discuss on the podcast it’s likely to be a long road to overhauling trade with China and nuclear disarmament North Korea.   Turning to the Fed, it’s latest FOMC meeting minutesall but guarantee a June rate hike, and the market is already anticipating another in Sep

This week resident mixologists, Chris Versace, Chief Investment Office and Lenore Hawkins, Chief Macro Strategist headed to New York City where they met with Yasmin Dahya, Head of Americas Beta Specialist team at JP Morgan Asset Management to talk about the evolving world of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).  By the end of 2017, more than $2.5 trillion dollars had been invested in ETFs around the world. As those investment vehicles have increasingly gathered assets in the last few years, we’ve seen the world of ETFs evolve from simple, passive funds that reflected standard indices such as the S&P 500 into ones reflecting specific trends such as cyber security, or commodities such as wheat and corn, giving investors a growing set of investing tools to use in their portfolios. As you’ll learn from Yasmin, this world is continuing to change and bringing with it more exciting ways for the individual investor to build a portfolio that reflects their wants, needs and view of the world.  For anyone who is interested

As we head towards the close of earnings season, there is no shortage of drama to challenge investors. Our resident mixologists, Chris Versace, Chief Investment Office and Lenore Hawkins, Chief Macro Strategist pour over the data and the headlines and distill it all down in our latest episode of Cocktail Investing.   As of the end of last week, 81% of the companies in the S&P 500 had reported their results for the March quarter with 78% reporting actual EPS above the mean EPS estimates (above the 5-year average of 70%). If this percentage, or better, ends up being the final for the quarter, it will be the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting actual EPS above estimates since FactSet began tracking the metric in Q3 2008. For top line sales, 77% have reported actuals above, which is a tie with the prior quarter, Q4 2017, for the highest beat rate. Strong results, yet share prices are not being rewarded. Chris and Lenore discuss why they think investors aren’t rewarding share prices and what

  A Discussion with Interos Solutions CEO Jennifer Bisceglie When most people think of the words “supply chain” they harken back to the class room definition — the sequence of steps and processes involved in the production and distribution of a commodity or product in a factory. While that’s true, over the last several decades the move toward low cost outsourcing has dramatically changed where companies source their components and finished products as well as the multitude of players that supply them. Factor in the rise of software and networks, and the downside of this operational focus is it has kicked the door wide open for bad actors to exploit the supply chain in the form of cyber and other attacks. In today’s podcast, Tematica’s Chris Versace discusses all of this with Interos Solutions CEO and President Jennifer Beisceglie, who recently testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on “China, the United States, and Next Generation Connectivity.” As Chris and Tematica’

  Download Episode   Amid the ups and downs of the stock market, it comes as little surprise to us here at Tematica that thematically well-positioned companies are M&A takeout candidates. We’ve seen it before, and odds are we will see it again. If you’ve been listening to CNBC or FOXBusiness, we are once again hearing that Boxed, a company that sits at the crosshairs of our Connected Society and Cash-Strapped Consumer investing themes, is once again in those crosshairs. Again, no surprise to us given we see Boxed as a cross between Amazon (AMZN) and Costco Wholesale (COST). With Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Kroger (KR) and others looking to catch Amazon, we see the logic. For more on Boxed, here’s the conversation between Tematica’s resident mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace with Boxed CEO Chieh Huang. It’s a conversation filled with confirming data points as well as some movie references to keep it fun and one that will leave you understanding why any of those companies we mentioned above c

  Download Episode   This is the final episode in the trilogy of episodes in which Tematica’s resident mixologists Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace discuss how the combination of thematics and global macro is truly one plus one is more than three when it comes to investing. During the conversation, Chris and Lenore talk about the synergies to be had from the intersection of this top down, bottom up combination. They also share a few examples of how that intersection has led to spirited debate between them, culminating in a better decision-making process. Remember, positive returns are as much about picking the right investment, but also avoiding pitfalls.   Resources for this podcast: EP 56: How and Why the Thematic Approach Helps You Make Better Investments Ep 55: The Global Macro Economy - What exactly is it and why its important when it comes to being a successful investor Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy TematicaResearch – https://www.tematicaresearch.com Themes Report:https:

  Download Episode   During this week’s Cocktail Investing episode, Tematica’s Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins interviews our own Chris Versace to understand how he developed the thematic investing approach and why it works so well. We hear how during the dotcom boom of the late 1990s, Chris was in the trenches with many in Wall Street who found that traditional ways of looking at investing were no longer producing results. He looked around at the traditional sector-focused investment strategies that were missing not only opportunities, but unable to capture meaningful signals from the marketplace – thus the birth of Tematica’s investment approach. While Chris walks us through how he identifies themes and implements them, he also shares what he has learned as a university professor and a soup actor. Yes, you read that right, his days as a soup actor are oddly right in line with the way he sees the investing world. You know you have to listen in now, don’t you? While the ways in which we communicate, co

Download Episode During this week’s Cocktail Investing episode, Tematica’s Chris Versace interviews none other than Tematica’s Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, to discuss among other things how the global macro landscape fits into our thematic lens and why it is so important to investors and business folks alike. During the conversation, Lenore reveals how she became fascinated with understanding the economy, as well as the why behind it. In sharing her biggest misstep with the economy, Lenore shares how listeners can benefit from those learnings as well as what tools she uses to not only stay on top of all the data, but how to put it into perspective. As Lenore explains, in today’s increasingly faster and faster world, taking the time to understand the underlying data, what it means and why it is happening makes all the difference when constructing view be it for the global economy or your investing portfolio. Lenore also shares, where she thinks we are in the current business cycle, how to spot the s

  Download Episode   During this week’s Cocktail Investing episode, Tematica’s mixologists Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace take the bull by the horns discussing the topic that has gripped headlines and jacked stock market volatility this – President Trump’s proposed steel and aluminum tariffs. While there is much being said over these proposed tariffs, Lenore and Chris explain why they think Trump is using the negotiating tactics he laid out in his 1987 book, Art of the Deal. Drawing on what we are seeing in the heavy truck market and the pain homebuilders are poised to face given the current lumber shortage, Chris and Lenore game out what is likely to happen if those tariffs move past the proposal stage. Shortages. Price Increases. Inflation concerns. Consumer spending pressures. Economic growth risks. And then there is how the Fed will see it all as it gets ready for this Mar. 20-21 monetary policy meeting. You know, the one where new Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have his first formal press conference as c

  Download Episode   In this week's episode of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, mixologists Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace parse the testimony from new Fed Chief Jerome Powell delivered before Congress this week. Why you ask? One reason was the investing herd’s reaction as the stock market dropped a quick 300 points following Powell’s comments during the Q&A session. Second, as we’ve been saying, the market is increasingly focused on what the Fed says and may do when it comes to monetary policy. This has made the Fed the market safety net over the last several years, but what did Powell say that might signal, as Bob Dylan sings, “the times are a-changing.” We know the stock market and its investors are no fans of change, let alone a potentially abrupt one, but when Lenore and Chris look at the crop of economic data through their thematic lens, it leads to more than a few questions about the vibe that Powell was trying to lay down. While Powell sounded a bit more hawkish than his predecessor Janet Yellen,

  Download Episode   Last week the S&P 500 enjoyed the biggest one-week advance since 2013, gaining 4.3%. The index began 2018 with its best start to the year since 1987 followed by a 10% decline in just 9 trading days, and then proceeded to bounce off its 200-day moving average, reversing roughly half its losses in the process. Quite a quick, volatile ride unlike anything we’ve seen in more than a year. We’ve gone from overbought to oversold and back to overbought again, but with volumes 22% lower on the move back up than during the slide down. It would seem not everyone is convinced the rebound will stick. Adding to the renewed sense of volatility, following its disappointing December quarter results, Walmart (WMT) shares fell 10% on Tuesday, as Tematica’s investing mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discussed what is likely to drive the markets in the coming weeks and months and what data they will be looking for to confirm or refute their outlook. Tematica’s dynamic duo point out that much o

    Download Episode   Last week the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 briefly dipped into correction territory, but by Monday, Feb. 12th both appeared to stabilize after two consecutive closes in the green. Tuesday equities once again opened in the red as Tematica’s investing mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins broke down what pushed the major indices into the red for the year and what investors can expect in the coming months. To put the decline in context, our mixologist noted that the forward PE ratio for the S&P 500 peaked right about the same time as did the price of bitcoin, which happened to be right around when tax reform was passed in a perfect example of “Buy the rumor and Sell the news. It appears that is when asset price optimism peaked. Volatility, which had been absent for most of 2017, remains elevated well above the range that dominated last year and as Hawkins shared in last week’s Weekly Wrap, it’s likely to be with us for some time. Tematica’s dynamic duo assess the conflicti

  Download Episode   During a turbulent stock market week that featured wild gyrations in equity indices, particularly on the domestic front, Tematica’s investing mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins broke down the what and why’s behind the return of market volatility. With a stock market that on the cusp of exiting January that was priced to perfection following a near 30% move over the prior 15 months that had stocks in truly rare air, the modest negative was bound to let some air out of the party balloons. What we have is a resetting of expectations, not so much for the domestic economy or inflation but rather over what the Fed is likely to do in the coming months. After several years of overpromising interest rate hikes and failing to deliver, it increasingly looks like the Fed will raise interest rates three if not four times in 2018. That’s a game changer to the recent narrative, and it’s given the market a bout of indigestion. Along the way, Tematica’s mixologists weave in the impact of risin

  Download Episode   Equities get wobbly as bond yields heat up while bitcoin continues to make headlines amidst a GDP miss for the 4Q as the greenback falls even further Tematica’s investing mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins share some take-aways from this month’s Inside ETF conference and discuss what is happening in the Blockchain/bitcoin world that has so many captivated. Chris and Lenore then breakdown last week’s December quarter GDP that came in below expectations and what it means in the context of earnings estimates for 2018 that have been revised upward over the past few weeks to an unprecedented level. They point out just how much of the GDP growth was dependent on consumer spending and what that means going forward as consumer debt climbs while the personal savings rate drop to near record lows. Tematica’s duo then tackle the recent market turbulence, what is likely driving it and what you need to be watching in the days and weeks ahead. We are seeing a boom in M&A of historic pro

    Download Episode   Earlier this week Tematica’s investing mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins attended the Inside ETF 2018 conference, where the proverbial who’s who in ETFs were to be found. Amid a packed schedule of conference presentations and meetings with ETF issuers and other industry players, our mixologists had a number of conversations regarding new investment strategies, new ETF structures, the growing global adoption of ETFs, and Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin as well as Blockchain. Among the conversations that we had, Chris had the opportunity to talk with both Doug Yones, the Head of Exchange Traded Products at NYSE that is part of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) global network of exchanges, and Jamie Wise at Periscope Capital, which is responsible for the BUZZ Indexes and BUZZ US Sentiment Leaders ETF (BUZ). The conversation with Doug centered on the rapid growth of the ETF industry, how it’s maturing and innovating as we celebrate the 25th anniversary of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF T

  Download Episode   This week Tematica’s investing mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins start this week’s podcast dishing on Kroger’s rumored acquisition target, continuing problems at General Electric and the standout product is at this year’s Detroit Auto Show. They then segue into a discussion on the ins and out of investing in small cap stocks and serve up several examples of what to look for, what to avoid and what to do to make sure you’ve identified the right small-cap stocks and finally how to make sure your investing thesis stays on track. Chris and Lenore then tackle one of the bigger stories investors have been focusing on – interest rates and upward pressure on treasury yields. Lenore pulls the curtain back as to why this is happening, explaining the how and why the 10-year Treasury Bond yield is out of sync with its historical relationship to GDP. We rattle off a number of flashing warning signs when it comes to the overall U.S. stock market following its continued acceleration highe

    Download Episode   This week Tematica’s investing mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins are back to discuss the technology-infused CES 2018, an annual tradeshow, and how the products and services revealed at the event reflect our Connected Society, Disruptive Technologies, Aging of the Population, Affordable Luxury, Aging of the Population and Safety & Security investing themes.   Our Connected Society theme could be found in products ranging from Travis the Translator to Alphabet’s robot Buddy to voice-controlled appliances and even faucets to Alexa getting embedded into more and more cars. The release of the iPhone X has spurred an acceleration in wireless charging solutions, but as of yet, the dominant technology used by most all is Qi, which remains position dependent and not all that speedy.   Disruptive Technology is getting more personal with technology that can create customized hair and skin care products emerging and even a tiny dot you can wear on a fingernail to help make sure you

  Download Episode   The potential earnings expectations discrepancy between tax reform, GDP, and stocks Coming off the holidays, entering 2018, and despite the disruption from snow bomb cyclone Grayson, Tematica’s investing mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins are back with a short recap on 2017 and discuss what market watchers are focusing on over in January. Next week brings the technology-infused CES 2018, an annual tradeshow that blurs the lines between our Connected Society and Disruptive Technologies investing themes. With a sense of humor, Chris and Lenore discuss several new technologies from 5G to haptic virtual reality (VR) that are poised to make headlines during the show and further transform our digital lives. After the Martin Luther King holiday, 4Q 2017 earnings season gets underway and while the market is focused on tax reform-laden EPS upside to be had, Lenore and Chris offer a sobering take on what some of the potential shortfalls are that could weigh on both the economy and the s

  A Look at the Official Kick-Off to the 2017 Holiday Shopping Season Download Episode Coming off the Thanksgiving holiday, this week Tematica’s investing mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the meaning of the litany of data points for online shopping on Thanksgiving as well as overall results for Black Friday. Expectations were running high for continued wallet share gains by digital shopping, a key aspect of our Connected Society investing theme, and they did not disappoint. What was surprising was the percentage of holiday shopping done via smartphones. Both the objective data, and as Chris and Lenore share, the anecdotal evidence, point to brick & mortar retail traffic over the holiday shopping weekend that was hardly robust. Per data from ShopperTrak, brick & mortar retail sales fell just under 2% year over year. No wonder retailers like Kohl’s (KSS) and JC Penney (JCP) were trying to put a positive spin on things by talking up their digital shopping. We continue to see brick &