Coffee House Shots

Today Wes Streeting – with the help of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves – announced his 10 year plan for curing the NHS. It’s all about creating a ‘Neighbourhood Health Service’, but what does actually mean in practice? Much of the plan was leaked in advance: first, focusing on preventing disease before it becomes too late; second, improving community healthcare services to help reduce pressure on hospitals; and third, embracing the tech revolution to bring the NHS into the ‘digital age’. One of the glaring omissions is a chapter on how this will all be delivered.Perhaps the most notable part of today’s launch was the decision to include Rachel Reeves – last seen in the Commons looking distraught as the Prime Minister (brutally) failed to back her. He has since thrown his support behind her – but has he made his political bed? Are Starmer and Reeves codependent?Oscar Edmondson speaks to Lucy Dunn and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

There were extraordinary scenes in PMQs today. Rachel Reeves appeared distraught as the Prime Minister failed to guarantee her security when asked by leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch. It was brutal to watch, as the iron chancellor’s lip quivered and a tear rolled down her cheek. In many ways, you can’t blame her – with her headroom narrowing, she will be forced to find a further £5 billion worth of savings to allow for the government’s botched welfare bill.No. 10 has since clarified that Rachel Reeves has not resigned and will not be sacked, stressing that it was ‘personal’ matter that had upset her, ‘which - as you would expect - we are not going to get into. The chancellor will be working out of Downing Street this afternoon’. There is still no clarification on whether that refers to issues in her personal life or her job security. The question remains: is she on borrowed time?James Heale speaks to Michael Simmons and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.

It’s D-Day for Labour’s welfare reforms. MPs will vote tonight on the party’s watered-down benefits cuts. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall formally announced Labour’s climbdown yesterday, telling MPs that the government had ‘listened carefully’ and was bringing in ‘positive changes’. Well, that’s one way of putting it.Even so, Labour is braced for a rebellion from dozens of MPs. We’ll know the full number at around 7pm, but it is not expected that there will be the 83 required to overturn the government’s majority. On today’s podcast, we take you inside the debate including some of the most notable speeches and what the fallout could be for the government. Can we expect a reshuffle in the near future? Should Keir Starmer watch his back? Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

There have been a number of navel-gazing interviews with the Prime Minister over the weekend. Across thousands and thousands of words, he seems to be saying – if you read between the lines – that he doesn't particularly enjoy being PM.In better news, Labour seems to have quelled the welfare rebellion. Liz Kendall is making a statement in the Commons this afternoon, in which she will outline the concessions that Labour has made on its controversial welfare bill. All in, the cost has spiralled by £3 billion per calendar year – which an already put-upon Chancellor will have to find. Whilst it remains the largest rebellion of this government, the number of rebels has shrunk to around 50. Also on the podcast, Wes Streeting is due to announce his – much-delayed – ten-year plan for the NHS. We are expecting a number of big shifts in Thursday’s announcement, including: moving from analogue to digital, swapping treatment for prevention, and hospital for community. Does Wes have the perspiration for the ailing NHS?Jame

As Labour rebels appear to have forced concessions from Keir Starmer over welfare this week, former Conservative MP Steve Baker joins James Heale to reflect on his own time as a rebel, and to provide some advice to Labour MPs. Steve, an MP for 14 years and a minister under Theresa May, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, tells James about the different rebellions he was a part of (from Brexit to Covid), explains how to organise a successful one and reveals how he has lost close friends when he has made the decision to compromise.He also blames Labour’s problems on their ‘bombs not benefits’ approach, explains why the current welfare rebellion demonstrates that ‘the facts of life are Conservative’ and argues that it has been a mistake for the Conservatives not the support Labour’s original approach to reducing the winter fuel allowance.Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Megan McElroy.

Keir Starmer has performed a screeching about-turn on his flagship welfare reforms, all in the hope of quelling the rebellion from more than 120 MPs who have been promised ‘massive concessions’ over concerns about disability benefits.These include moderating the bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits, and offering to protect Personal Independence Payments (PIP) for all existing claimants for ever – to ensure there would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants, a key concern of the welfare rebels. But new claimants will be affected, as ministers desperately try to stop ever-spiralling disability and sickness welfare spending climbing to £100 billion by 2030. It means another big U-turn for Starmer – and another hole in the Treasury’s finances. Early estimates suggest that the welfare bill climbdown could cost £2 billion: money which Rachel Reeves will now have to find elsewhere. Can Starmer recover? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Luke

It’s bad news all round for Labour and the Tories. An MRP poll out today forecasts that if an election were held tomorrow, Labour would not only lose its majority, but fall behind Reform to become the second-largest party. The Conservatives would be reduced to a mere 46 seats, placing them fourth behind the Lib Dems.But that’s just the beginning of their collective woes. On the Labour side – despite Keir Starmer’s charm offensive and ongoing talks with Labour MPs about potential changes to welfare policy – the number of rebels appears to be growing. The feeling increasingly is that someone might have to go, and calls for ‘regime change’ splash the Times. Is time up for Morgan McSweeney?On the other side of the House, the Tories are in disarray, as Tim Shipman reports in The Spectator this week. In his scoop-filled piece, he writes: David Cameron thinks Robert Jenrick should be the next Tory leader, strategists fear the best they can hope for is to salvage 80 seats, and the blond bombshell Boris Johnson has a

Keir Starmer is facing war on both fronts. He is in the Netherlands to talk about defence and announce a major change in the UK's nuclear posture in response to rising challenges in the Middle East. But everyone in Westminster wants to talk about a different kind of warfare: the warfare over welfare. MPs will vote on the government’s controversial welfare bill, after more than 120 MPs signed a reasoned amendment that would effectively stop the bill in its tracks. What has been most concerning for the government is how organised the rebellion appears, with many picking up on the mutinous mood since Kim Leadbeater’s assisted dying bill. The government is increasingly looking like it will lose the vote. Are Labour going to pull the bill? And if so, surely they need to do it sooner rather than later.Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and John McTernan, former political adviser to Tony Blair.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

It is rare to see the President so visibly frustrated (see The Apprentice, circa 2004), but after Iran and Israel seemingly ignored his ceasefire announcement – and his plea on Truth Social, ‘PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!’ – Donald Trump has come down hard on both sides. In a clip taken this afternoon he exclaimed: ‘These are countries who have been fighting so long and so hard, that they don't know what the f*** they're doing.’ Succinctly put by the President.The exchange of fire could be the expected tit-for-tat seen after the announcement of ceasefires in other global conflicts, but it has dampened the mood at Nato, which world leaders were approaching with cautious optimism, believing the road to de-escalation was clearing. What happens next?Also on the podcast, Keir Starmer is facing a huge rebellion less than a year after coming into power. Overnight, scores of Starmer’s MPs have signed a reasoned amendment to the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill. This would effectively kill the bill

The weekend saw the US launch airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, with Tehran warning of ‘everlasting consequences’. Despite an emergency Cobra meeting and Luke Pollard’s morning media round, we are still waiting for an answer on whether the government supports Trump’s action. Keir Starmer’s assured and confident position on the world stage now looks to be in peril, as he is pulled between Trump, his attorney general and the court of public opinion. Can he de-escalate?Also on the podcast, Nigel Farage delivered a speech this morning in which he announced changes to non-doms and unveiled a new ‘Britannia card’ – although most of the questions afterwards centred on the situation in the Middle East. This comes after Ipsos polling gave Reform UK a record nine-point lead over the Labour party. How has Reform managed to cultivate this new coalition?Oscar Edmondson speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

On this week’s special Saturday edition of Coffee House Shots, James Heale sits down with Jeremy Hunt to discuss his new book, Can We Be Great Again?. The former chancellor and foreign secretary argues that Britain remains one of the world’s most influential nations – but is in danger of losing its nerve. He reflects on working in the Foreign Office during Donald Trump’s first term, makes the case for the BBC as a tool of soft power, and admits he wanted to be the first chancellor since 1997 to deliver a Budget with a whisky in hand.Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Patrick Gibbons.

MPs have voted – by a narrow 23-vote margin – in favour of legalising assisted dying. Bizarrely, the 51.9 to 48.1 per cent breakdown is the exact same as the 2016 referendum result, although hopefully this issue doesn't divide the Labour party in the same way that Brexit did for the Tories.The whole process is far from ‘Parliament at its best’, as it has often been claimed. Despite hours of passionate and emotional debate, key concerns about the drafting of the bill forced some who would naturally back assisted dying to oppose it. The overwhelming feeling is that a private member’s bill was not the right forum for this kind of legislation.So what comes next? The bill will now pass to the House of Lords, after which comes the business of putting the measures into practice. This raises a multitude of problems for the Labour government, as it must now decide, for example, whether the responsibility will fall on the NHS or private doctors; who will pay for it; and what legal protections will be given to doctors a

It’s a historic day in Westminster, where MPs will vote on the assisted dying bill – the outcome of which could have huge repercussions for healthcare, politics and the courts. It’s such a significant day, in fact, that we’ll be recording another podcast just after the result is announced at around 2.30 p.m.Kim Leadbeater’s camp remains confident that the bill will pass, although many anticipate a much closer vote than at the second reading. This is in no small part due to high-profile members of the party being opposed to the legislation, and Keir Starmer remaining characteristically evasive on the issue. The backdrop, of course, is the resignation of a government whip, Vicky Foxcroft – though over a separate issue: Liz Kendall's plan to cut personal independence payments. Could this be part of a coordinated rebellion? And how will the assisted dying bill – brought by a Labour MP and tacitly backed by a Labour PM– define Labour’s first year?Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Isabel Hardman.Produced by

This week, our new political editor Tim Shipman takes the helm and, in his cover piece, gives us the inside track on how Labour is dealing with Iran, Donald Trump and the prospect of escalating war in the Middle East.He writes that this could be the moment when all of Keir Starmer’s chickens come home to roost: his well-curated international image is at risk of crumbling as global crises present greater challenges; his hands are tied by legal advice from the controversial Lord Hermer; the Chagos Islands are being drawn into the US’s retaliation plans; and there remains the looming threat of backbench rebellion over Labour’s national security strategy. Tim is joined by James Heale and Lucy Dunn to discuss what may be Starmer’s biggest test yet.Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Natasha Feroze.

Westminster waits with bated breath to discover whether Donald Trump will ally with Israel in striking Iranian nuclear sites. The President called for ‘UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!’ from Tehran overnight. The day to day of domestic politics appears diminished by comparison with the ever-looming threat of an escalated conflict…But the show must go on: today’s PMQs saw Chris Philp (why not Robert Jenrick?) and Angela Rayner deputising for their absent leaders; Liz Kendall introduced legislation to enact cuts to personal independence payments for disabled people; the Commons voted to decriminalise abortion at any point until birth; and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is up to its old tricks, announcing that inflation has fallen when the reality is much more complicated. Can we trust the forecasters? And did anyone ask for this amendment on abortion? James Heale speaks to Michael Simmons and Kate Andrews.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Yesterday Yvette Cooper announced a national inquiry into the grooming gangs scandal after the Casey Review found that a disproportionate number of Asian men were responsible and that governments and authorities had failed to step in over fears of racism. Anxious to press Labour on their U-turn – memorably, Starmer accused the Tories of ‘jumping on the far-right bandwagon’ – Kemi Badenoch held a press conference, joined by victims of the gangs. ‘I’m not doing politics now, when I’m in the Houses of Parliament, when I’m in the Commons, I will do politics’, she said. But can you really take the politics out of the grooming gangs scandal?Elsewhere, Donald Trump has fled the G7. Although this isn’t the first time he has cut a G7 visit short, it does mean he snubbed meetings with Zelensky and the Mexican president. Have Labour got what they wanted out of the conference? And what should we read into Trump’s early exit?Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Following Keir Starmer's decision to call for a national inquiry into grooming gangs, the Home Secretary Yvette Cooper spoke in the Commons today about the 'collective failure' to address questions about groomings gangs' ethnicity in the Casey report. Elsewhere this week, Welfare reform legislation is being tabled, with a vote expected before the end of the month. Sir Keir Starmer has signalled his willingness to confront dissent within his own ranks. Meanwhile, the assisted dying debate is once again gaining momentum in Westminster, with MPs preparing for a free vote on one of the most ethically charged issues in British politics. Natasha Feroze, is joined by James Heale and Isabel Hardman.

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's politics shows.The conflict in the Middle-East has entered a dangerous new phase, with Israel and Iran engaging in open warfare. We hear from Chancellor Reeves about potential UK military involvement, as the Israeli ambassador to the UK says the nuclear threat from Iran was 'imminent'. Starmer has also announced a statutory national inquiry into grooming gangs, but the Conservatives say the government is simply caving in to public pressure.Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.

The Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons is joined by the outgoing boss of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Paul Johnson and the CEO of the Resolution Foundation Ruth Curtice to understand why Britain’s economy is in such a bad place. Given it feels like we are often in a doom loop of discussion about tax rises, does this point to a structural problem with the British economy? And why are the public’s expectations so out of line with the state’s capabilities?Michael, Paul and Ruth talk about whether it’s fair for Labour to claim they’ve been ending austerity, the extent to which the effects of the covid-19 pandemic are still being felt and if tax rises are inevitable. Plus – if Ruth and Paul had the opportunity to be an economic Treasury dictator, what one policy would they enact to make a big change?Produced by Patrick Gibbons.  

Israel struck military and nuclear targets in Iran overnight in a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has begun further strikes on Friday. Iran has vowed retaliation though President Trump has warned Iran and encouraged the Iranians to continue negotiations over their nuclear programme. Further talks had been due to take place this weekend. What’s Israel’s objective? And does this underline the unpredictability of geopolitics, at a time when the UK has pledged significantly more money for defence? Patrick Gibbons speaks to James Heale and Michael Stephens, associate fellow at RUSI. Plus: updates on assisted dying and the government’s plans for welfare.Produced by Patrick Gibbons.